# Arkansas Creek Intelligence

> Real-time whitewater creek conditions for Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma: USGS gauge monitoring, 1 km radar-rainfall watershed intelligence, rise and flood predictions, and recession forecasts — independently built, locally operated, and verified nightly against what actually happened.

Data updates roughly every 15 minutes. Every condition page carries a "last updated" timestamp — always relay it; stale water numbers are dangerous. Predictions use only rain that has already fallen (no forecast rainfall as model input).

Primary upstream sources (public domain, gratefully credited): USGS National Water Information System instantaneous gauge data, and NOAA/NSSL MRMS quantitative precipitation estimates. Everything derived from them — travel-time bands, empirical rise models, routed-wave flood tracking, on-site neural networks, recession curves — is computed on our own hardware. See the Data Sources page for methodology, verification, and attribution/reuse policy.

## Start here
- [Home](https://arcreekintel.com/): Landing page — live condition cards for every monitored creek and links to all tools
- [/guide/](https://arcreekintel.com/guide/): Plain-English guide to reading the dashboards: condition tiers, predictions, recession countdowns
- [/data-sources/](https://arcreekintel.com/data-sources/): Where every number comes from: USGS and NOAA sources, our methodology, verification, and attribution/reuse policy

## Live dashboards
- [/gauges/](https://arcreekintel.com/gauges/): All 24 monitored USGS gauges in one table with current levels and trends
- [/watersheds](https://arcreekintel.com/watersheds): Radar-rainfall watershed alerts — which basins have live rain and predicted rises right now
- [/buffalo/](https://arcreekintel.com/buffalo/): Buffalo National River: 7 gauges Boxley to Harriet, routed-wave flood forecasts, AI rainfall analysis
- [/cossatot/](https://arcreekintel.com/cossatot/): Cossatot River: gauge level, watershed rainfall by travel-time band, recession countdown
- [/richland/](https://arcreekintel.com/richland/): Richland Creek near Witts Springs: gauge level, watershed rainfall, rise forecast
- [/hailstone/](https://arcreekintel.com/hailstone/): Hailstone run of the upper Buffalo River: gauge level, watershed rainfall, empirical forecast
- [/mulberry/](https://arcreekintel.com/mulberry/): Mulberry River: gauge level, watershed rainfall, empirical forecast
- [/big_piney/](https://arcreekintel.com/big_piney/): Big Piney Creek near Dover: gauge level, watershed rainfall, empirical forecast
- [/illinois/](https://arcreekintel.com/illinois/): Upper Illinois River (Upper Illinois Water Trail): 21-HUC12 watershed intelligence and Watts downstream outlook
- [/buffalo/horizons/](https://arcreekintel.com/buffalo/horizons/): Buffalo River multi-hour outlook: routed-wave arrival forecasts for each gauge
- [/buffalo/neural-net-predictions/](https://arcreekintel.com/buffalo/neural-net-predictions/): Experimental neural-net level projections for the upper Buffalo, re-issued hourly from 1 km radar
- [/cossatot/neural-net-predictions/](https://arcreekintel.com/cossatot/neural-net-predictions/): Experimental neural-net level projections for the Cossatot, re-issued hourly from 1 km radar

## Historical event catalogs
- [/ponca/historical/](https://arcreekintel.com/ponca/historical/): Every rise and every fizzle at Ponca since 2014 — NPS buckets, excursion and dwell statistics
- [/cossatot/historical/](https://arcreekintel.com/cossatot/historical/): Cossatot rise-event history with rainfall context
- [/richland/historical/](https://arcreekintel.com/richland/historical/): Richland Creek rise-event history with rainfall context
- [/hailstone/historical/](https://arcreekintel.com/hailstone/historical/): Upper Buffalo (Hailstone) rise-event history with rainfall context
- [/illinois/historical/](https://arcreekintel.com/illinois/historical/): Illinois River rise-event history: 350+ storm excursions and dwell times
- [/study/](https://arcreekintel.com/study/): Buffalo River watershed study archive (Feb–Jul 2026): 122 days of daily AI-written condition analyses

## How the predictions work
- [/buffalo/math/waves/](https://arcreekintel.com/buffalo/math/waves/): The routed-wave tracker explained: how rain becomes a predicted flood wave
- [/buffalo/math/rain/](https://arcreekintel.com/buffalo/math/rain/): How 1 km MRMS radar rainfall is measured over each watershed
- [/buffalo/math/recession/](https://arcreekintel.com/buffalo/math/recession/): How recession countdowns are computed from per-gauge master curves
- [/buffalo/math/confidence/](https://arcreekintel.com/buffalo/math/confidence/): How prediction confidence bands are derived
- [/buffalo/math/neural/](https://arcreekintel.com/buffalo/math/neural/): The pixel neural network explained
- [/buffalo/math/ponca-ai/](https://arcreekintel.com/buffalo/math/ponca-ai/): The AI rainfall-event analog analysis explained
- [/scorecard](https://arcreekintel.com/scorecard): Nightly self-evaluation — every prediction the system makes, graded against what actually happened
- [/changelog](https://arcreekintel.com/changelog): Release notes for the site, written for paddlers

Disclaimer: condition estimates are informational only. Whitewater is inherently dangerous; conditions change rapidly — users must exercise independent judgment.