Gauges: 9 min ago | Radar (QPE): 19 min ago | MRMS hour: 24 min ago | Forecast (QPF): 23 min ago
Radar: MRMS product 08:05 UTC Oct 02 | Forecast: WPC QPF cycle 06z Oct 02 | Updates every 15 min
| Drainage | Status | Recent Rain (Past 7 days) | Location | Radius | Lag | Estimated Fallen (QPE) | Forecast to Fall (QPF) | Trigger | Detail | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1hr | 3hr | 6hr | 12hr | 24hr | 6hr | 12hr | 24hr | ||||||||
| Big Piney Family | |||||||||||||||
| Upper Big Piney | No Alert | 0.24 in | 35.78N 93.28W | 4.0 km | 10-14 | 0.291" | 0.681" | 0.758" | 1.027" | 1.138" | 0.630" | 1.019" | 1.039" | 3.092" / event | 0.67" event rain — 22% of 3.09" trigger (BONE-DRY start, Q 1 cfs, drought D2 ×1.87) |
| Haw Creek | No Alert | 0.25 in | 35.67N 93.28W | 2.0 km | NOW | 0.333" | 0.652" | 0.680" | 0.899" | 0.999" | 0.458" | 0.945" | 0.955" | 6.18" / 6hr | 0.68" in 6hr — 11% of 6.18" trigger (Big Piney BONE-DRY D2 ×1.87 × 2.0) |
| Hurricane (Newton) Creek | No Alert | 0.26 in | 35.79N 93.16W | 3.0 km | 6-8 | 0.110" | 0.425" | 0.489" | 0.647" | 0.864" | 0.659" | 1.067" | 1.097" | 3.09" / 6hr | 0.49" in 6hr — 15% of 3.09" trigger (Big Piney BONE-DRY D2 ×1.87 × 1.0) |
| Branson Family | |||||||||||||||
| Upper Swan Creek | No Alert | 0.07 in | 36.96N 92.95W | 6.0 km | 3-6 | 0.000" | 0.000" | 0.000" | 0.146" | 0.149" | 0.487" | 0.546" | 0.546" | 2.8" / 12hr | 0.15" in 12hr — 5% of 2.80" trigger (1.4x rain adj) |
| Lower Swan Creek (Garrison-Forsyth) | No Alert | 0.20 in | 36.85N 93.02W | 6.0 km | 2-4 | 0.000" | 0.002" | 0.002" | 0.156" | 0.157" | 0.458" | 0.507" | 0.507" | 2.8" / 12hr | 0.16" in 12hr — 5% of 2.80" trigger (1.4x rain adj) |
| Roark Creek (Branson) | No Alert | 0.24 in | 36.70N 93.30W | 5.0 km | 0-2 | 0.000" | 0.000" | 0.000" | 0.108" | 0.115" | 0.610" | 0.679" | 0.679" | 2.1" / 6hr | 0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 2.10" trigger (1.4x rain adj) |
| Buffalo Family | |||||||||||||||
| Adkins Drainage | No Alert | 0.42 in | 35.81N 93.44W | 1.0 km | NOW | 0.224" | 0.531" | 0.612" | 0.940" | 1.141" | 0.492" | 0.733" | 0.743" | 4.2" / 6hr | 0.61" in 6hr — 14% of 4.20" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 2.0) |
| Boen Gulf Drainage | No Alert | 0.40 in | 35.88N 93.39W | 1.0 km | NOW | 0.062" | 0.359" | 0.494" | 0.844" | 1.030" | 0.551" | 0.772" | 0.782" | 4.2" / 6hr | 0.49" in 6hr — 11% of 4.20" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 2.0) |
| Upper Buffalo | No Alert | 0.45 in | 35.82N 93.47W | 4.0 km | 6-8 | 0.068" | 0.298" | 0.382" | 0.707" | 1.067" | 0.522" | 0.743" | 0.763" | 2.1" / event | 1.05" event rain — 50% of 2.10" trigger (BONE-DRY start, Q 4 cfs) |
| Beech Creek | No Alert | 0.44 in | 35.93N 93.46W | 2.0 km | NOW | 0.008" | 0.184" | 0.409" | 0.731" | 0.972" | 0.561" | 0.743" | 0.753" | 3.15" / 6hr | 0.41" in 6hr — 12% of 3.15" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 1.5) |
| Cossatot Family | |||||||||||||||
| Upper Cossatot | No Alert | 0.02 in | 34.42N 94.20W | 5.0 km | 8-10 | 0.000" | 0.008" | 0.041" | 0.208" | 0.592" | 0.128" | 0.630" | 0.940" | 2.4" / event | 0.55" event rain — 23% of 2.40" trigger (BONE-DRY start, Q 3 cfs, drought D3 ×2.00) |
| Baker Creek | No Alert | 0.01 in | 34.36N 94.16W | 3.0 km | NOW | 0.000" | 0.019" | 0.059" | 0.246" | 0.511" | 0.118" | 0.590" | 0.871" | 4.8" / 6hr | 0.06" in 6hr — 1% of 4.80" trigger (Cossatot BONE-DRY D3 ×2.00 × 2.0) |
| Kiamichi Family | |||||||||||||||
| Pine Creek OK | No Alert | 0.12 in | 34.49N 95.63W | 5.0 km | 4-6 | 0.183" | 0.190" | 0.190" | 0.365" | 2.140" | 0.369" | 0.428" | 0.566" | 2.8" / 12hr | 0.36" in 12hr — 13% of 2.80" trigger (1.4x rain adj) |
| Buck Creek OK | No Alert | 0.15 in | 34.39N 95.66W | 3.0 km | 4-6 | 0.271" | 0.288" | 0.288" | 0.479" | 1.881" | 0.290" | 0.379" | 0.547" | 2.8" / 6hr | 0.29" in 6hr — 10% of 2.80" trigger (1.4x rain adj) |
| Kings Family | |||||||||||||||
| Upper Kings River | No Alert | 0.55 in | 35.87N 93.58W | 3.0 km | 4-6 | 0.013" | 0.110" | 0.326" | 0.594" | 0.795" | 0.591" | 0.773" | 0.793" | 3.15" / 6hr | 0.33" in 6hr — 10% of 3.15" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 1.5) |
| Osage Creek | No Alert | 0.24 in | 36.11N 93.31W | 1.0 km | NOW | 0.046" | 0.268" | 0.369" | 0.641" | 0.707" | 0.679" | 0.871" | 0.901" | 4.2" / 6hr | 0.37" in 6hr — 8% of 4.20" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 2.0) |
| Little Buffalo Family | |||||||||||||||
| West Fork Shop Creek | No Alert | 0.39 in | 35.90N 93.24W | 1.0 km | NOW | 0.181" | 0.441" | 0.484" | 0.727" | 0.780" | 0.650" | 1.019" | 1.049" | 4.2" / 6hr | 0.48" in 6hr — 11% of 4.20" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 2.0) |
| EFLB | No Alert | 0.34 in | 35.85N 93.26W | 3.0 km | NOW | 0.295" | 0.604" | 0.676" | 0.952" | 1.082" | 0.620" | 0.979" | 1.009" | 3.15" / 6hr | 0.68" in 6hr — 21% of 3.15" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 1.5) |
| Thomas Creek | No Alert | 0.40 in | 35.88N 93.35W | 2.0 km | NOW | 0.053" | 0.496" | 0.580" | 0.930" | 1.029" | 0.571" | 0.832" | 0.862" | 4.2" / 6hr | 0.58" in 6hr — 13% of 4.20" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 2.0) |
| Mulberry Family | |||||||||||||||
| Spirits Creek | No Alert | 0.74 in | 35.68N 93.91W | 3.0 km | NOW | 0.041" | 0.166" | 0.173" | 0.293" | 0.506" | 0.399" | 0.517" | 0.527" | 3.0" / 6hr | 0.17" in 6hr — 5% of 3.00" trigger (Mulberry BONE-DRY D1 ×1.20 × 2.0) |
| Richland Family | |||||||||||||||
| Richland Main | No Alert | 0.28 in | 35.75N 93.02W | 4.0 km | 5-7 | 0.124" | 0.226" | 0.436" | 0.790" | 0.801" | 0.571" | 0.960" | 0.980" | 4.2" / event | 0.87" event rain — 21% of 4.20" trigger (BONE-DRY start, Q 0 cfs, drought D3 ×2.00) |
| Falling Water | No Alert | 0.24 in | 35.70N 92.96W | 2.0 km | 4-6 | 0.391" | 0.478" | 0.508" | 1.045" | 1.045" | 0.468" | 0.896" | 0.916" | 5.25" / 12hr | 1.04" in 12hr — 19% of 5.25" trigger (Richland BONE-DRY D3 ×2.00 × 1.25) |
| Big Devils Fork | No Alert | 0.16 in | 35.83N 92.97W | 1.0 km | NOW | 0.067" | 0.173" | 0.264" | 0.869" | 0.872" | 0.689" | 1.068" | 1.098" | 8.4" / 6hr | 0.26" in 6hr — 3% of 8.40" trigger (Richland BONE-DRY D3 ×2.00 × 2.0) |
| Long Devils Fork | No Alert | 0.22 in | 35.82N 92.99W | 1.0 km | NOW | 0.067" | 0.178" | 0.260" | 0.835" | 0.847" | 0.640" | 1.029" | 1.049" | 8.4" / 6hr | 0.26" in 6hr — 3% of 8.40" trigger (Richland BONE-DRY D3 ×2.00 × 2.0) |
| Bobtail Creek | No Alert | 0.17 in | 35.77N 92.90W | 1.0 km | NOW | 0.093" | 0.156" | 0.238" | 0.747" | 0.747" | 0.630" | 1.176" | 1.206" | 6.3" / 6hr | 0.24" in 6hr — 3% of 6.30" trigger (Richland BONE-DRY D3 ×2.00 × 1.5) |
Leave-one-year-out over the creek's radar + gauge record: a WARNING/WATCH "verifies" when the creek reached its floatable floor within 24 h of the storm, at least an hour after the trigger was reached. "Blue-sky" = triggers per year with no rise.
| Drainage | WARNINGs verified | Typical lead | Blue-sky / yr | WATCHes verified | WATCH lead | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richland Main | 6 in 10 | 3 h | 6.8 | 5 in 10 | 4 h | 2015–2026 |
| Upper Big Piney | 7 in 10 | 9 h | 5.7 | 6 in 10 | 10 h | 2014–2026 |
| Upper Buffalo | 6 in 10 | 3 h | 6.2 | 4 in 10 | 3 h | 2015–2026 |
| Upper Cossatot | 7 in 10 | 5 h | 7.2 | 6 in 10 | 5 h | 2015–2026 |
Upper Buffalo reads the Boxley gauge on the Hailstone run levels (upper Buffalo, above Boxley): its FLOOD is that gauge at or above 2,000 cfs. The Buffalo page’s Boxley card reads the same gauge on the Boxley → Ponca levels (Flood at 1,600 cfs).