Watershed Radar Predictions

Gauges: 9 min ago | Radar (QPE): 63 min ago | MRMS hour: 69 min ago | Forecast (QPF): 67 min ago

Radar: MRMS product 14:05 UTC Oct 16 | Forecast: WPC QPF cycle 12z Oct 16 | Updates every 15 min

Drainage	Status	Recent Rain (Past 7 days)	Location	Radius	Lag	Estimated Fallen (QPE)					Forecast to Fall (QPF)			Trigger	Detail
Drainage	Status	Recent Rain (Past 7 days)	Location	Radius	Lag	1hr	3hr	6hr	12hr	24hr	6hr	12hr	24hr	Trigger	Detail
Big Piney Family
Upper Big Piney	No Alert	0.98 in	35.78N 93.28W	4.0 km	10-14	0.000"	0.021"	0.021"	0.022"	0.022"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	1.968" / event	No active rain event — Q 8 cfs (BONE-DRY D1 ×1.19: needs 1.97")
Haw Creek	No Alert	1.17 in	35.67N 93.28W	2.0 km	NOW	0.000"	0.019"	0.019"	0.034"	0.034"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	3.94" / 6hr	0.02" in 6hr — 0% of 3.94" trigger (Big Piney BONE-DRY D1 ×1.19 × 2.0)
Hurricane (Newton) Creek	No Alert	0.96 in	35.79N 93.16W	3.0 km	6-8	0.000"	0.031"	0.031"	0.036"	0.036"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	1.97" / 6hr	0.03" in 6hr — 1% of 1.97" trigger (Big Piney BONE-DRY D1 ×1.19 × 1.0)
Branson Family
Upper Swan Creek	No Alert	1.05 in	36.96N 92.95W	6.0 km	3-6	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	0.005"	0.080"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	2.0" / 12hr	0.01" in 12hr — 0% of 2.00" trigger
Lower Swan Creek (Garrison-Forsyth)	No Alert	1.48 in	36.85N 93.02W	6.0 km	2-4	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	0.001"	0.082"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	2.0" / 12hr	0.00" in 12hr — 0% of 2.00" trigger
Roark Creek (Branson)	No Alert	2.12 in	36.70N 93.30W	5.0 km	0-2	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	0.001"	0.019"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	1.35" / 6hr	0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 1.35" trigger (0.9x rain adj)
Buffalo Family
Adkins Drainage	No Alert	1.28 in	35.81N 93.44W	1.0 km	NOW	0.000"	0.017"	0.017"	0.017"	0.017"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	4.2" / 6hr	0.02" in 6hr — 0% of 4.20" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 2.0)
Boen Gulf Drainage	No Alert	1.82 in	35.88N 93.39W	1.0 km	NOW	0.000"	0.013"	0.021"	0.021"	0.021"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	4.2" / 6hr	0.02" in 6hr — 0% of 4.20" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 2.0)
Upper Buffalo	No Alert	1.44 in	35.82N 93.47W	4.0 km	6-8	0.000"	0.010"	0.011"	0.011"	0.011"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	2.1" / event	No active rain event — Q 6 cfs (BONE-DRY: needs 2.10")
Beech Creek	No Alert	2.92 in	35.93N 93.46W	2.0 km	NOW	0.000"	0.007"	0.008"	0.008"	0.008"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	3.15" / 6hr	0.01" in 6hr — 0% of 3.15" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 1.5)
Cossatot Family
Upper Cossatot	No Alert	0.02 in	34.42N 94.20W	5.0 km	8-10	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	2.4" / event	No active rain event — Q 3 cfs (BONE-DRY D3 ×2.00: needs 2.40")
Baker Creek	No Alert	0.00 in	34.36N 94.16W	3.0 km	NOW	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	4.8" / 6hr	0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 4.80" trigger (Cossatot BONE-DRY D3 ×2.00 × 2.0)
Kiamichi Family
Pine Creek OK	No Alert	0.12 in	34.49N 95.63W	5.0 km	4-6	0.000"	0.000"	0.001"	0.020"	0.059"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	2.8" / 12hr	0.02" in 12hr — 0% of 2.80" trigger (1.4x rain adj)
Buck Creek OK	No Alert	0.10 in	34.39N 95.66W	3.0 km	4-6	0.000"	0.000"	0.007"	0.018"	0.085"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	2.8" / 6hr	0.01" in 6hr — 0% of 2.80" trigger (1.4x rain adj)
Kings Family
Upper Kings River	No Alert	2.86 in	35.87N 93.58W	3.0 km	4-6	0.000"	0.007"	0.008"	0.008"	0.014"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	3.15" / 6hr	0.01" in 6hr — 0% of 3.15" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 1.5)
Osage Creek	No Alert	2.22 in	36.11N 93.31W	1.0 km	NOW	0.000"	0.016"	0.016"	0.028"	0.028"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	4.2" / 6hr	0.02" in 6hr — 0% of 4.20" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 2.0)
Little Buffalo Family
West Fork Shop Creek	No Alert	1.24 in	35.90N 93.24W	1.0 km	NOW	0.000"	0.044"	0.051"	0.051"	0.051"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	4.2" / 6hr	0.05" in 6hr — 1% of 4.20" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 2.0)
EFLB	No Alert	1.02 in	35.85N 93.26W	3.0 km	NOW	0.000"	0.024"	0.026"	0.026"	0.026"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	3.15" / 6hr	0.03" in 6hr — 0% of 3.15" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 1.5)
Thomas Creek	No Alert	1.90 in	35.88N 93.35W	2.0 km	NOW	0.000"	0.024"	0.036"	0.036"	0.036"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	4.2" / 6hr	0.04" in 6hr — 0% of 4.20" trigger (Boxley BONE-DRY × 2.0)
Mulberry Family
Spirits Creek	No Alert	1.37 in	35.68N 93.91W	3.0 km	NOW	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	0.010"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	2.85" / 6hr	0.00" in 6hr — 0% of 2.85" trigger (Mulberry BONE-DRY D1 ×1.14 × 2.0)
Richland Family
Richland Main	No Alert	0.65 in	35.75N 93.02W	4.0 km	5-7	0.000"	0.024"	0.024"	0.065"	0.065"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	2.384" / event	0.02" event rain — 1% of 2.38" trigger (BONE-DRY start, Q 2 cfs, drought D1 ×1.14)
Falling Water	No Alert	0.24 in	35.70N 92.96W	2.0 km	4-6	0.007"	0.030"	0.030"	0.113"	0.113"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	2.98" / 12hr	0.11" in 12hr — 3% of 2.98" trigger (Richland BONE-DRY D1 ×1.14 × 1.25)
Big Devils Fork	No Alert	1.16 in	35.83N 92.97W	1.0 km	NOW	0.000"	0.050"	0.050"	0.064"	0.064"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	4.77" / 6hr	0.05" in 6hr — 1% of 4.77" trigger (Richland BONE-DRY D1 ×1.14 × 2.0)
Long Devils Fork	No Alert	1.18 in	35.82N 92.99W	1.0 km	NOW	0.000"	0.046"	0.046"	0.060"	0.060"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	4.77" / 6hr	0.05" in 6hr — 0% of 4.77" trigger (Richland BONE-DRY D1 ×1.14 × 2.0)
Bobtail Creek	No Alert	0.44 in	35.77N 92.90W	1.0 km	NOW	0.005"	0.023"	0.023"	0.083"	0.083"	0.000"	0.000"	0.000"	3.58" / 6hr	0.02" in 6hr — 0% of 3.58" trigger (Richland BONE-DRY D1 ×1.14 × 1.5)

How often the calibrated triggers verify

Leave-one-year-out over the creek's radar + gauge record: a WARNING/WATCH "verifies" when the creek reached its floatable floor within 24 h of the storm, at least an hour after the trigger was reached. "Blue-sky" = triggers per year with no rise.

Drainage	WARNINGs verified	Typical lead	Blue-sky / yr	WATCHes verified	WATCH lead	Record
Richland Main	6 in 10	3 h	6.8	5 in 10	4 h	2015–2026
Upper Big Piney	7 in 10	9 h	5.7	6 in 10	10 h	2014–2026
Upper Buffalo	6 in 10	3 h	6.2	4 in 10	3 h	2015–2026
Upper Cossatot	7 in 10	5 h	7.2	6 in 10	5 h	2015–2026

Upper Buffalo reads the Boxley gauge on the Hailstone run levels (upper Buffalo, above Boxley): its FLOOD is that gauge at or above 2,000 cfs. The Buffalo page’s Boxley card reads the same gauge on the Boxley → Ponca levels (Flood at 1,600 cfs).

DISCLAIMER: This site provides creek condition estimates for informational purposes only. Gauge data, radar estimates, and forecasts may be delayed, inaccurate, or unavailable. Always exercise independent judgment. Whitewater kayaking is inherently dangerous — water conditions can change rapidly. This site and its maintainers assume no responsibility for decisions made based on information displayed here.

Page Details: This page uses Data collected from NOAA's Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Data (MRMS QPE) and the Weather Prediction Center's Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (WPC QPF) system. It attempts to predict when certain Creeks in the State of Arkansas will be boatable. The WPC QPF provides an amount of precipitation that is "Forecast to Fall" in a 5km x 5km grid, in the next 6, 12, and 24 hours, centered on the Latitude and Longitude of the defined watersheds of Arkansas Creeks. Information about the WPC QPF can be found here. The MRMS QPE gives an "Estimated Fallen" amount of precipitation in a geographic area, defined by a latitude and longitude, and a circle around that point. The resolution of the MRMS QPE system is a square approximately 1km by 1km. Learn more about the MRMS System here. Gauge Data updates every 15 minutes, QPE Data updates every hour, and QPF data updates every 3 hours.

Caveats: It goes without saying, but this is a different approach to judging when a creek is in than the traditional method of looking at the nearest USGS gauge (That data is still available via the main Gauges page) but it attempts to address the shortfall in identifying runnable creeks, that don't have a gauge on them (Or the gauge is at the bottom of the run) and have a tendency to drop out before folks could get on. It is obviously quite experimental, and triggers, thresholds and location data likely will need to be updated and refined. Contact Dave if you've got thoughts on how this page can be improved with additional data, or refinement of the data that is here.

Smarter triggers (July 2026, refit September 2026): Most drainages now use a real creek gauge as a ground-dryness indicator. How much rain it takes to raise a creek depends heavily on how wet the ground already is — a dead-low creek in July can shrug off rain that would flood it in February. Upper Buffalo, Richland Main, Upper Cossatot and Upper Big Piney read their own gauge (the Mulberry gauge serves Spirits): the threshold in the Trigger column adjusts automatically to the creek's flow before the storm ("event" = rain accumulated over the current storm, rather than a fixed time window), refit on 11–12 years of radar and gauge history with a lead-time requirement (a catch only counts an hour or more before the creek came up), leave-one-year-out; the Cossatot's thresholds split by leaf season. Leaf season is by calendar month, Central time: leaf-on May–October, leaf-off November–April. Drought ramp (since 11 Sep 2026): the calibrated thresholds were fit on storms that mostly started with a little water in the creek; a creek at literal zero after a dry summer needs far more rain than the same creek at 15 cfs. So in leaf season the trigger is raised smoothly as the pre-storm flow falls through the creek's own low-flow record — unchanged at or above the creek's 10th-percentile flow (tier D0), rising to 2× at its 1st percentile (D3, “literal zero”), with D1 and D2 between; in leaf-off season the ramp is off, because bare-tree storms from a dry start have come up on the base numbers. The Detail column shows the tier and multiplier (e.g. “BONE-DRY start, Q 0 cfs, drought D3 ×2.00”), the neighboring drainages inherit it through their reference gauge, and the Signal/Facebook alert line says “raised for drought”. Fit leave-one-year-out on the same 12-year record: overall skill unchanged, leaf-season dry-start false alarms roughly halved. How often those triggers actually verify is in the table above — roughly six or seven WARNINGs in ten, with a false alarm every month or two on each creek; hover a Trigger cell for the creek's numbers. Their neighboring drainages (the Buffalo, Little Buffalo, Kings, Richland, Cossatot and Big Piney families) borrow the nearest calibrated gauge as a regional dryness read, scaled by a local-knowledge multiplier — the Detail column shows the reference gauge, its dryness bucket, and the multiplier (e.g. "Boxley DRY × 2.0"). These are heuristic, not calibrated — treat them as a watch, not a forecast. FLOOD is the gauge's word, shown only when a calibrated creek's own reading is at or above its flood level; the rain trigger tops out at WARNING. What a status holds (since 8 Sep 2026): a rain WATCH/WARNING stays on the page for the drainage's lag plus two hours so a storm is still visible when its water reaches the gauge, but on a calibrated creek the gauge comes first — once the creek is running (or already came up and is receding) the rain word clears and the creek's own reading is the status; FLOOD follows the gauge with a one-hour confirmation after it drops. Only the Kiamichi creeks and the Branson Family (Swan and Roark Creeks, Missouri — added September 2026, first-guess triggers, page-only: they do not send Signal/Facebook alerts yet) still use fixed thresholds adjusted by recent-rain multipliers.

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