Empirical Forecasts — Big Piney Creek — 2026-08-08

Forecasts archived: 24
Settled (expiry passed): 24

Big Piney Creek

05:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 5.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

04:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 5.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

03:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 5.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_LOWER (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

02:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 6.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

01:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 27.9 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

00:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 29.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

23:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 29.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

22:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 29.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

21:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 29.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

20:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 29.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

19:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 29.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

18:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 29.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

17:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 29.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

16:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 29.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

15:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 29.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

14:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 29.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 14:30 UTC)

13:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 29.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 14:30 UTC)

12:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 29.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 14:30 UTC)

11:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 29.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 14:30 UTC)

10:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 29.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 14:30 UTC)

09:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 29.3 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band —, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 14:30 UTC)

08:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 29.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 08:45 UTC)

07:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 29.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 08:45 UTC)

06:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 24h: 25.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 08:45 UTC)