Classification: correct Confidence: Both physics and empirical models correctly classified this low-energy event. Confidence in the 'dry ground' suppression logic remains high.
The model correctly predicted a quiet day with a peak near baseline, matching the negligible actual rise of 0.05 ft.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 1.85 ft | 1.85 ft | +0.00 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.05 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.47" | 0.00 ft | MODERATE | VERY DRY |
| 2 | 0.42" | 0.00 ft | MODERATE | VERY DRY |
| 3 | 0.54" | 0.00 ft | MODERATE | VERY DRY |
| 4 | 0.64" | 0.00 ft | HEAVY | VERY DRY |
| 5 | 0.57" | 0.00 ft | MODERATE | VERY DRY |
Headline: No rise indicated by recent rainfall Settled outcome: None (reached None) LLM said headline was correct: True Notes: The empirical engine correctly predicted 'No rise indicated' and the gauge remained at baseline (1.8-1.85 ft).
The event was characterized by very low rainfall (0.1" gauge, ~0.5" QPE) on very dry antecedent ground. The physics model issued a prediction of 1.85 ft, which is essentially the baseline (observed daily min 1.8 ft). The actual peak was 1.85 ft, resulting in 0% error. The model correctly identified that the effective rainfall, after accounting for initial abstraction and dry soil conditions, would not generate a significant hydrologic response above the baseflow.
The empirical engine also correctly forecasted 'No rise indicated,' with a probability of rise near 0.5%. Both systems aligned in predicting a flat hydrograph. The slight 0.05 ft rise observed is likely attributable to minor fluctuations or measurement noise rather than a storm-driven event. No calibration adjustments are warranted as the model performance was accurate within the expected noise margin for such low-magnitude events.
Predictions issued today (archive): 11 active issuance(s) from 2026-10-01T18:20:02.948054+00:00 to 2026-10-02T04:20:02.709049+00:00; issued peaks ranged 1.81 to 1.85 ft. The prediction graded below is the HIGHEST issued peak of the day (issued 2026-10-02T04:20:02.709049+00:00), not the last card of the day.
Grade-only mode: no adjustments suggested; calibration is fit offline.
Both physics and empirical models correctly classified this low-energy event. Confidence in the 'dry ground' suppression logic remains high.