Empirical Forecasts — Cossatot River — 2026-09-11

Hourly records: 24 — claims (≥8 %): 3, no-rise-indicated: 21, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 0
Settled (horizon passed): 24

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Cossatot River

04:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (2.06 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~2.7 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

03:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (2.07 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~2.7 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

02:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (2.09 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~2.7 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

01:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (2.1 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~2.7 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

00:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (2.1 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~2.7 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

23:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (2.07 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~2.7 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

22:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (2.05 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.6 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

21:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (2.02 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~2.7 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

20:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (2 ft). Rain 6 h: 3.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.5 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

19:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (2 ft). Rain 6 h: 5.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.5 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

18:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (2.01 ft). Rain 6 h: 7.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~11.6 % chance of rising to LOW within 12 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

17:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (2.01 ft). Rain 6 h: 7.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~11.6 % chance of rising to LOW within 12 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

16:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (2 ft). Rain 6 h: 7.8 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~1.5 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

15:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.99 ft). Rain 6 h: 8.2 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~1.5 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

14:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.95 ft). Rain 6 h: 6.3 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~1.5 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

13:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.9 ft). Rain 6 h: 8.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~1.5 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

12:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.88 ft). Rain 6 h: 5.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.5 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

11:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.87 ft). Rain 6 h: 5.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.5 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

10:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.86 ft). Rain 6 h: 5.3 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.5 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

09:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.86 ft). Rain 6 h: 4.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.5 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

08:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.85 ft). Rain 6 h: 3.2 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

07:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.85 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.4 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

06:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.84 ft). Rain 6 h: 3.5 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.5 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

05:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.84 ft). Rain 6 h: 17.8 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: ~45.8 % chance of rising to LOW within 12 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise