Classification: no_prediction Confidence: The model has seen 7 calibrated events, including recent saturated and high-intensity scenarios. Confidence remains 'high' as the coefficient has been iteratively tuned through significant under/over-prediction cycles. However, further refinement may be needed if future small-rainfall events in saturated conditions show discrepancies, as the current model relies heavily on recent large-event calibration.
No rainfall occurred in the Boxley basin today, resulting in no physics prediction or empirical forecast, while the gauge recorded a 76 CFS decline from the previous day's event under saturated antecedent conditions.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak CFS | N/A | 239 CFS | N/A |
| Total rise | — | 76.0 CFS | — |
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
The physics model correctly generated no prediction because the MRMS QPE recorded 0.0 inches of precipitation for the entire 24-hour period. Without rainfall input, the physics engine does not forecast a hydrograph rise, which is consistent with the observation that the 239 CFS peak was actually a residual flow declining from the massive 1520 CFS event on June 8th. The model's behavior is technically correct as it is designed to predict rises driven by rainfall, not track recession limbs of prior events.
The empirical forecast model also issued no headline for the hailstone gauge today, which is appropriate given the absence of new rainfall triggers. The gauge reading of 239 CFS represents low-tier flow (below the 500 CFS threshold), so the lack of an alert is consistent with the hydrological state. The antecedent moisture tier remains SATURATED (3.319" 7-day total), but this does not necessitate a coefficient adjustment in the absence of a precipitation event to test the runoff response.
No changes made.