USGS 07055646 · Buffalo River near Boxley, AR
| Zone | 1hr | 3hr | 6hr | 12hr | 24hr | QPF 24hr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boxley catchment (Terrapin Branch-Buffalo River + upper Smith Creek) | 0.19" | 0.35" | 0.35" | 0.69" | 0.99" | 0.76" |
| Smith Creek-Buffalo River (part of the catchment above) | 0.24" | 0.00" | 0.00" | 0.00" | 1.03" | 0.76" |
| Beech Creek | 0.15" | 0.00" | 0.00" | 0.00" | 1.00" | 0.75" |
QPE = Precipitation Estimate (observed) · QPF = Precipitation Forecast
Upstream rainfall too light to drive a rise
Ground: VERY DRY ground (by pre-storm baseflow 3.8 cfs; about 1.5" of rain soaks in before runoff starts)
No rise indicated by recent rainfall
Soil: MOIST · Confidence: CALIBRATED
Calibrated chance the gauge rises from BELOW_LOW to LOW within the next 12 h, from 6 h rainfall (10.6 mm) at this gauge level (history stratum gq0); ground MOIST by 7-day rain. Experimental.
| Level | Chance | Rain before past rises 6 h total · p25 / p50 / p75 | n | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOW 500 cfs | ~2% | 0.60" | 0.76" | 1.01" | 39 moist soil |
| MEDIUM 700 cfs | ~2% | 0.69" | 0.88" | 1.89" | 13 moist soil |
| HIGH 2,000 cfs | ~0% | fewer than 10 past rises on record | |||
Rain columns are context, not a probability: the 6-h rain that fell before past rises to each level (quartiles of n past rises; the population is noted under n). This basin: 0.42" so far in the last 6 h. The Chance column is the calibrated forecast.