← 2026-06-22  |  2026-06-24 →

Hailstone (Upper Buffalo) — Daily Analysis: 2026-06-23

Classification: no_prediction Confidence: Confidence remains steady as the model correctly identified a non-event day. The saturated antecedent conditions are being accurately tracked.

Event Summary

No precipitation was recorded in the Boxley basin, resulting in no physics prediction and no empirical forecast headline, while the gauge showed a residual decline from previous days' events.

Prediction vs Actual

Metric Predicted Actual Error
Peak CFS N/A 685 CFS N/A
Total rise 353.0 CFS

Band Contributions

Band Zone Precip Predicted Rise Intensity

Analysis

The QPE data shows virtually zero rainfall (0.001") in the Boxley basin today. Consequently, the physics model generated no prediction, which is the correct behavior for a dry day. The gauge recorded a peak of 685 CFS early in the day (01:00 local), but this represents the tail-end recession from the massive 7300 CFS event on June 22 and the 792 CFS event on June 14, rather than a new rainfall-driven response. Since there was no new input, the lack of a predicted peak is accurate.

Coefficient Adjustments

No changes made.

← 2026-06-22  |  2026-06-24 →