Classification: no_prediction Confidence: Model correctly identified no event. Confidence remains high for non-events. Saturated tier calibration still needs validation against rising events.
No rainfall was recorded in the Boxley basin today, resulting in no physics prediction and no empirical forecast headline, while the gauge showed a residual decline from previous days' events.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak CFS | N/A | 278 CFS | N/A |
| Total rise | — | 102.0 CFS | — |
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
The MRMS QPE data indicates 0.0 inches of precipitation over the 24-hour period for the Boxley basin. Consequently, the physics model correctly generated no prediction, as there is no antecedent rainfall input to drive flow calculations for a new event. The gauge readings show a peak of 278.0 CFS at 01:00 local time and a minimum of 176.0 CFS at 23:15 local time, indicating a net decline in flow. This is consistent with the recession limb of flow following previous significant events on June 14, 22, and 27.
Since there was no rainfall event, the physics model's lack of prediction is appropriate. There is no bias to correct regarding response coefficients, lag, or dispersion because the input forcing was zero. The empirical forecast was also not issued, which is correct given the absence of a new weather event. The observed decline in CFS confirms that the watershed is currently in a recession phase despite being classified as SATURATED.
No calibration adjustments are recommended. The model is behaving correctly by ignoring non-events. The confidence in the current calibration remains high for quiet days, but continues to rely on limited data for actual rising events.
No changes made.