Empirical Forecasts — Hailstone (upper Buffalo) — 2026-08-16

Forecasts archived: 13
Settled (expiry passed): 4

Hailstone (upper Buffalo)

18:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Pending until 2026-08-17 02:18 UTC

17:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Pending until 2026-08-17 01:18 UTC

16:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Pending until 2026-08-17 00:18 UTC

15:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Pending until 2026-08-16 23:18 UTC

14:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Pending until 2026-08-16 22:18 UTC

13:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Pending until 2026-08-16 21:18 UTC

12:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Pending until 2026-08-16 20:18 UTC

11:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Pending until 2026-08-16 19:18 UTC

10:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Pending until 2026-08-16 18:18 UTC

09:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

08:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

07:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)

06:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: below_low, crossed: did not reach target)