Hailstone (Upper Buffalo) — Predictions: 2026-06-08
Predictions issued: 4
Settled (peak window passed): 4
Issued 2026-06-08 17:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
299 CFS |
1520 CFS |
+1221 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-06-08 17:51 |
2026-06-08 13:45 |
— |
Moisture: SATURATED (3.34" 7-day, x2.00)
Confidence: medium — No prior events under SATURATED conditions
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
1.05" |
578 CFS |
16:36 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-06-08 16:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
580 CFS |
1500 CFS |
+920 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-06-08 16:51 |
2026-06-08 13:30 |
— |
Moisture: SATURATED (3.28" 7-day, x2.00)
Confidence: medium — No prior events under SATURATED conditions
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.99" |
545 CFS |
16:28 |
HEAVY |
Threshold crossings
Issued 2026-06-08 15:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
492 CFS |
446 CFS |
-46 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-06-08 15:51 |
2026-06-08 12:30 |
— |
Moisture: SATURATED (3.16" 7-day, x2.00)
Confidence: medium — No prior events under SATURATED conditions
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.87" |
479 CFS |
16:19 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-06-08 14:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
278 CFS |
446 CFS |
+168 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-06-08 15:51 |
2026-06-08 12:30 |
— |
Moisture: WET (2.53" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (6 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.23" |
81 CFS |
15:35 |
MODERATE |