Hailstone (Upper Buffalo) — Predictions: 2026-06-27
Predictions issued: 4
Settled (peak window passed): 4
Issued 2026-06-27 16:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
202 CFS |
370 CFS |
+168 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-06-27 16:51 |
2026-06-27 13:30 |
— |
Moisture: SATURATED (5.25" 7-day, x2.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (9 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.87" |
489 CFS |
15:31 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-06-27 15:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
488 CFS |
264 CFS |
-224 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-06-27 15:51 |
2026-06-27 12:30 |
— |
Moisture: SATURATED (5.25" 7-day, x2.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (9 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.87" |
489 CFS |
15:31 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-06-27 14:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
444 CFS |
264 CFS |
-180 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-06-27 15:51 |
2026-06-27 12:30 |
— |
Moisture: SATURATED (5.21" 7-day, x2.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (9 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.83" |
466 CFS |
15:28 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-06-27 13:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
159 CFS |
211 CFS |
+52 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-06-27 14:51 |
2026-06-27 11:30 |
— |
Moisture: SATURATED (4.47" 7-day, x2.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (9 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.08" |
27 CFS |
14:27 |
LIGHT |