Hailstone (Upper Buffalo) — Predictions: 2026-07-29
Predictions issued: 3
Settled (peak window passed): 3
Issued 2026-07-30 01:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
31 CFS |
8 CFS |
-24 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-07-30 01:51 |
2026-07-29 20:30 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (0.74" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (11 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.61" |
172 CFS |
00:52 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-07-30 00:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
137 CFS |
8 CFS |
-129 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-07-30 00:51 |
2026-07-29 19:30 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (0.74" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (11 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.61" |
171 CFS |
00:52 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-07-29 23:21
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak CFS |
86 CFS |
9 CFS |
-78 CFS |
| Peak time |
2026-07-30 00:51 |
2026-07-29 18:30 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (0.56" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (11 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.42" |
120 CFS |
00:33 |
HEAVY |