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Hailstone (Upper Buffalo) — Predictions: 2026-09-13

Rise predictions issued: 0
No-rise claims (quiet / too light) issued: 24
Settled (18-h window passed): 24

No-rise claims

Every hourly run that predicted no rise (quiet, rain too light, or a crest inside the noise floor). Settled: 24; verified 24; the gauge rose anyway on 0.

Issued Flow Engine Why Peak in 18 h Rose? Verdict
04:21 2.4 cfs v2 quiet (no upstream rainfall) 2.6 cfs no verified
03:21 2.4 cfs v2 quiet (no upstream rainfall) 2.6 cfs no verified
02:21 2.4 cfs v2 quiet (no upstream rainfall) 2.6 cfs no verified
01:21 2.4 cfs v2 quiet (no upstream rainfall) 2.6 cfs no verified
00:21 2.4 cfs v2 quiet (no upstream rainfall) 2.6 cfs no verified
23:21 2.4 cfs v2 quiet (no upstream rainfall) 2.6 cfs no verified
22:21 2.4 cfs v2 quiet (no upstream rainfall) 2.6 cfs no verified
21:21 2.4 cfs v2 quiet (no upstream rainfall) 2.6 cfs no verified
20:21 2.4 cfs v2 quiet (no upstream rainfall) 2.6 cfs no verified
19:21 2.4 cfs v2 quiet (no upstream rainfall) 2.6 cfs no verified
18:21 2.3 cfs v2 quiet (no upstream rainfall) 2.6 cfs no verified
17:21 2.3 cfs v2 quiet (no upstream rainfall) 2.6 cfs no verified
16:21 2.3 cfs v2 quiet (no upstream rainfall) 2.6 cfs no verified
15:21 2.3 cfs v2 quiet (no upstream rainfall) 2.6 cfs no verified
14:21 2.3 cfs v2 quiet (no upstream rainfall) 2.6 cfs no verified
13:21 2.3 cfs v2 quiet (no upstream rainfall) 2.4 cfs no verified
12:21 2.3 cfs v2 quiet (no upstream rainfall) 2.4 cfs no verified
11:21 2.3 cfs v2 quiet (no upstream rainfall) 2.4 cfs no verified
10:21 2.1 cfs v2 quiet (no upstream rainfall) 2.4 cfs no verified
09:21 2.1 cfs v2 quiet (no upstream rainfall) 2.4 cfs no verified
08:21 2.1 cfs v2 rain too light to drive a rise 2.4 cfs no verified
07:21 2.1 cfs v2 rain too light to drive a rise 2.4 cfs no verified
06:21 2.0 cfs v2 rain too light to drive a rise 2.4 cfs no verified
05:21 2.0 cfs v2 rain too light to drive a rise 2.4 cfs no verified
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