Empirical Forecasts — Illinois River (Hwy 16) — 2026-08-15

Forecasts archived: 24
Settled (expiry passed): 22

Illinois River (Hwy 16)

05:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Pending until 2026-08-16 19:18 UTC

04:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Pending until 2026-08-16 18:18 UTC

03:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

02:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

01:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

00:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

23:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

22:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

21:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

20:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 20:45 UTC)

19:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 19:30 UTC)

18:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 18:45 UTC)

17:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 17:30 UTC)

16:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 17:30 UTC)

15:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 17:30 UTC)

14:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

13:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

12:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

11:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

10:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

09:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

08:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

07:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

06:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 06:30 UTC)