Upper Illinois Water Trail
Upstream Signal Gauges
| Sub-Watershed | 1 hr | 24 hr | 24 hr QPF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Weddington-Illinois River | 0.00" | 0.10" | 0.00" |
| Headwaters Illinois River | 0.00" | 0.10" | 0.00" |
| Goose Creek-Illinois River | 0.00" | 0.17" | 0.00" |
| Mud Creek | 0.00" | 0.20" | 0.00" |
| Hamestring Creek | 0.00" | 0.13" | 0.00" |
| Little Wildcat Creek-Clear Creek | 0.00" | 0.08" | 0.00" |
| Headwaters Osage Creek | 0.00" | 0.07" | 0.00" |
| Little Osage Creek | 0.00" | 0.09" | 0.00" |
| Brush Creek | 0.00" | 0.06" | 0.00" |
| Outlet Osage Creek | 0.00" | 0.10" | 0.00" |
| Upper Muddy Fork | 0.00" | 0.14" | 0.00" |
| Moores Creek | 0.00" | 0.09" | 0.00" |
| Lower Muddy Fork | 0.00" | 0.09" | 0.00" |
| Chambers Hollow-Illinois River | 0.00" | 0.12" | 0.00" |
| Lake Fayetteville-Clear Creek | 0.00" | 0.13" | 0.00" |
| Spring Creek | 0.00" | 0.06" | 0.00" |
| Sub-Watershed | 1 hr | 24 hr | 24 hr QPF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upper Ballard Creek | 0.00" | 0.09" | 0.00" |
| Lake Frances-Illinois River | 0.00" | 0.14" | 0.00" |
| Weddington Creek | 0.00" | 0.08" | 0.00" |
| Cincinnati Creek | 0.00" | 0.09" | 0.00" |
| Lower Ballad Creek | 0.00" | 0.12" | 0.00" |
QPE = Precipitation Estimate (observed) · QPF = Precipitation Forecast
No rise indicated by recent rainfall
Soil: MOIST · Confidence: CALIBRATED
Forecast applies to the Hwy 16 decision-gauge thresholds.
Calibrated chance the gauge rises from MEDIUM to HIGH within the next 30 h, from 24 h rainfall (2.7 mm) at this gauge level (history stratum gq1); ground MOIST by 7-day rain. Experimental.
| Level | Chance | Rain before past rises 24 h total · p25 / p50 / p75 | n | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOW 150 cfs | — | fewer than 10 past rises on record | |||
| MEDIUM 250 cfs | — | 0.51" | 0.97" | 1.63" | 29 moist soil |
| HIGH 2,500 cfs | ~2% | 0.90" | 1.42" | 1.93" | 140 moist soil |
Rain columns are context, not a probability: the 24-h rain that fell before past rises to each level (quartiles of n past rises; the population is noted under n). This basin: 0.11" so far in the last 24 h. The Chance column is the calibrated forecast.
Updated: 6:49 AM CT