Empirical Forecasts — Illinois River (Hwy 16) — 2026-09-13

Hourly records: 24 — claims (≥8 %): 0, no-rise-indicated: 23, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 1
Settled (horizon passed): 24

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Illinois River (Hwy 16)

04:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (260 cfs). Rain 24 h: 8.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

03:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (257 cfs). Rain 24 h: 8.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

02:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (254 cfs). Rain 24 h: 8.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

01:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (254 cfs). Rain 24 h: 8.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

00:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (254 cfs). Rain 24 h: 8.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

23:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (257 cfs). Rain 24 h: 8.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

22:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (257 cfs). Rain 24 h: 8.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

21:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (257 cfs). Rain 24 h: 8.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

20:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (257 cfs). Rain 24 h: 8.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

19:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (257 cfs). Rain 24 h: 8.4 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

18:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (257 cfs). Rain 24 h: 8.7 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

17:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (257 cfs). Rain 24 h: 8.7 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

16:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (254 cfs). Rain 24 h: 8.7 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

15:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (254 cfs). Rain 24 h: 9.3 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

14:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (254 cfs). Rain 24 h: 9.9 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

13:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (254 cfs). Rain 24 h: 9.9 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

12:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (251 cfs). Rain 24 h: 9.9 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

11:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (251 cfs). Rain 24 h: 8.9 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

10:18 UTC — gauge tier low (248 cfs). Rain 24 h: 5.8 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

09:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (251 cfs). Rain 24 h: 2.9 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~5.2 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

08:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (251 cfs). Rain 24 h: 1.8 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~2.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

07:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (251 cfs). Rain 24 h: 1.8 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~2.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

06:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (251 cfs). Rain 24 h: 1.8 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~2.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

05:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (251 cfs). Rain 24 h: 1.8 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~2.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative