Classification: correct Confidence: Confidence remains 'medium'. The model is handling baseline conditions well after recent corrections, but lacks data from a significant, correctly predicted rising limb event to upgrade confidence.
The model correctly predicted a near-baseline peak of 1.49 ft on a day with negligible effective rainfall and no significant gauge rise, despite the timing discrepancy inherent to daily aggregation.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 1.49 ft | 1.55 ft | -0.06 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.07 ft | — |
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The prediction generated a peak of 1.49 ft, which is within 3.9% of the observed daily maximum of 1.55 ft. This small error falls well within the acceptable +/-15-20% margin for a 'correct' classification. The watershed was in a WET state (2.124" 7-day rainfall), but the gauge precipitation was 0.0" and QPE inputs were minimal and fragmented, occurring primarily late in the day (15:13 to 23:13). Consequently, no significant hydrologic response was expected or observed beyond the baseline variability.
The large timing error (23.8 hours) is an artifact of comparing a predicted future peak (June 25) against an observed peak that occurred at the start of the reporting window (June 24 00:00). Since the observed rise was negligible (0.07 ft) and flat, the 'actual peak' likely represents the baseline starting condition rather than a response to today's inputs. The model correctly identified that today's rainfall inputs were insufficient to drive a meaningful rise above baseline levels.
Given the accuracy of the magnitude prediction for a quiet day, no calibration adjustments are recommended. The recent reductions in response coefficients (calibrated_10) appear to have successfully corrected the previous massive overpredictions. The system is currently stable for low-input events.
No changes made.
Confidence remains 'medium'. The model is handling baseline conditions well after recent corrections, but lacks data from a significant, correctly predicted rising limb event to upgrade confidence.