Classification: no_prediction Confidence: Model confidence remains medium. The successful avoidance of false positives in the last three events suggests the current calibration is appropriately conservative, but verified positive events are needed to confirm accuracy of magnitude predictions.
No prediction was generated because QPE rainfall at 02:13 was not corroborated by the gauge precipitation sensor, resulting in a flat hydrograph with no meaningful rise.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | N/A | 1.0 ft | N/A |
| Total rise | — | 0.09 ft | — |
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Headline: No rise indicated by recent rainfall Settled outcome: None (reached None) LLM said headline was correct: True Notes: The empirical headline predicted no rise, and the gauge remained flat with only a 0.09 ft rise, consistent with the 'below_low' tier.
The predictor correctly failed to generate a prediction, likely due to data-availability issues or an internal threshold that flagged the brief QPE spike (0.06"-0.54" between 01:13 and 03:13) as unreliable given the zero gauge precipitation. This is consistent with the previous two events (2026-08-06 and 2026-08-07) where QPE detected rainfall that did not translate to gauge wetting or streamflow. The gauge recorded a flat hydrograph with a minimal rise of 0.09 ft, confirming that the QPE data was noise or localized away from the watershed's effective drainage area.
Since no prediction was issued, no calibration adjustments to band response coefficients, moisture tiers, or intensity tiers are warranted. The model's behavior aligns with the recent trend of avoiding false positives by withholding predictions when QPE is inconsistent with ground-truth precipitation. The empirical forecast headline 'No rise indicated by recent rainfall' was accurate, as the gauge remained below the 'low' threshold (3.0 ft).
Confidence in the current 'medium' tier remains unchanged. The system is successfully filtering out QPE noise, which is the desired behavior given the recent history of overprediction when QPE was trusted blindly. Further adjustments should only be considered after a verified rainfall event with both QPE and gauge confirmation.
No changes made.
Model confidence remains medium. The successful avoidance of false positives in the last three events suggests the current calibration is appropriately conservative, but verified positive events are needed to confirm accuracy of magnitude predictions.