Classification: correct Confidence: The model continues to perform well in dry conditions, correctly avoiding overprediction. Confidence in the very dry tier calibration is increased.
The model correctly predicted a minimal stage rise of 0.28 ft, closely matching the observed 0.25 ft peak during a quiet, dry-day rainfall event that was not detected by the gauge's precipitation sensor.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 0.28 ft | 0.25 ft | +0.03 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.11 ft | — |
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ? | 0.08" | 0.00 ft | LIGHT | VERY DRY |
| 2 | ? | 0.23" | 0.00 ft | MODERATE | VERY DRY |
Headline: No rise indicated by recent rainfall Settled outcome: None (reached None) LLM said headline was correct: True Notes: The empirical headline 'No rise indicated by recent rainfall' was borne out by the actual gauge outcome, which remained near baseline with only a minimal rise.
The event was characterized by low antecedent moisture (VERY DRY tier) and minimal QPE rainfall signals in both bands, with the ground-truth gauge recording zero precipitation. The predictor issued a conservative rise prediction of 0.28 ft, which was validated by the actual gauge peak of 0.25 ft. The 12.0% peak error is within the acceptable threshold for a 'correct' classification, particularly given the near-baseline nature of the hydrograph and the high uncertainty associated with QPE-only signals in dry conditions.
The timing error was negligible at -0.4 hours, and the hydrograph shape was sharp, consistent with a minor, localized response rather than a broad watershed event. The model's response to the QPE signals was appropriately muted given the VERY DRY moisture tier, avoiding the overprediction issues seen in previous WET tier events. The empirical forecast headline correctly indicated 'No rise indicated by recent rainfall,' aligning with the observed quiet hydrograph.
Predictions issued today (archive): 3 active issuance(s) from 2026-09-11T02:20:02.101718+00:00 to 2026-09-11T04:20:02.959465+00:00; issued peaks ranged 0.28 to 0.28 ft. The prediction graded below is the HIGHEST issued peak of the day (issued 2026-09-11T02:20:02.101718+00:00), not the last card of the day.
Grade-only mode: no adjustments suggested; calibration is fit offline.
The model continues to perform well in dry conditions, correctly avoiding overprediction. Confidence in the very dry tier calibration is increased.