Richland Creek — Predictions: 2026-06-13
Predictions issued: 8
Settled (peak window passed): 8
Issued 2026-06-14 05:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
7.79 ft |
8.98 ft |
+1.19 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-06-14 05:50 |
2026-06-14 00:45 |
— |
Moisture: SATURATED (4.61" 7-day, x2.00)
Confidence: medium — Predicted rise exceeds observed range
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 2 |
3.63" |
6.96 ft |
04:31 |
INTENSE |
Threshold crossings
- above_recommended_up: 2026-06-14 05:50
Issued 2026-06-14 04:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
16.05 ft |
9.42 ft |
-6.63 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-06-14 04:50 |
2026-06-13 23:45 |
— |
Moisture: SATURATED (4.61" 7-day, x2.00)
Confidence: medium — Predicted rise exceeds observed range
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
3.84" |
12.49 ft |
04:02 |
INTENSE |
| 2 |
3.63" |
8.70 ft |
04:31 |
INTENSE |
Threshold crossings
- above_recommended_up: 2026-06-14 04:50
Issued 2026-06-14 03:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
17.39 ft |
9.42 ft |
-7.97 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-06-14 03:50 |
2026-06-13 23:45 |
— |
Moisture: SATURATED (4.41" 7-day, x2.00)
Confidence: medium — Predicted rise exceeds observed range
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
3.74" |
12.17 ft |
03:58 |
INTENSE |
| 2 |
3.23" |
7.72 ft |
04:12 |
INTENSE |
Threshold crossings
- low_floatable_up: 2026-06-14 03:50
- optimal_up: 2026-06-14 03:50
- above_recommended_up: 2026-06-14 03:50
Issued 2026-06-14 02:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
10.29 ft |
8.35 ft |
-1.94 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-06-14 02:50 |
2026-06-13 22:30 |
— |
Moisture: SATURATED (3.08" 7-day, x2.00)
Confidence: medium — Predicted rise exceeds observed range
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
2.50" |
8.12 ft |
03:00 |
INTENSE |
| 2 |
1.76" |
3.62 ft |
02:42 |
HEAVY |
Threshold crossings
- too_low_up: 2026-06-14 02:50
- low_floatable_up: 2026-06-14 02:50
- optimal_up: 2026-06-14 02:50
- above_recommended_up: 2026-06-14 02:50
Issued 2026-06-14 01:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
6.20 ft |
8.35 ft |
+2.15 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-06-14 02:50 |
2026-06-13 22:30 |
— |
Moisture: WET (2.73" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: medium — Predicted rise exceeds observed range
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
1.99" |
4.85 ft |
02:30 |
INTENSE |
| 2 |
1.68" |
2.59 ft |
02:35 |
HEAVY |
Threshold crossings
- too_low_up: 2026-06-14 01:50
- low_floatable_up: 2026-06-14 02:50
- optimal_up: 2026-06-14 02:50
- above_recommended_up: 2026-06-14 02:50
Issued 2026-06-14 00:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
4.71 ft |
7.21 ft |
+2.50 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-06-14 01:50 |
2026-06-13 22:00 |
— |
Moisture: WET (2.33" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: medium — Predicted rise exceeds observed range
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
1.70" |
4.14 ft |
02:16 |
INTENSE |
| 2 |
1.09" |
1.68 ft |
01:48 |
HEAVY |
Threshold crossings
- too_low_up: 2026-06-14 01:50
- low_floatable_up: 2026-06-14 01:50
Issued 2026-06-13 23:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
2.70 ft |
7.21 ft |
+4.51 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-06-14 01:50 |
2026-06-13 22:00 |
— |
Moisture: WET (1.62" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (9 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.79" |
1.65 ft |
01:31 |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
0.74" |
1.15 ft |
01:15 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-06-13 22:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.76 ft |
3.86 ft |
+2.10 ft |
| Peak time |
2026-06-14 00:50 |
2026-06-13 20:45 |
— |
Moisture: NORMAL (1.24" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (9 events)
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.31" |
0.36 ft |
00:54 |
MODERATE |
| 2 |
0.56" |
0.58 ft |
01:00 |
HEAVY |