PRE-ANALYSIS (per-gauge facts, Day 108, 2026-06-16):
(f) QPE-peak attribution: The only non-zero QPE that coincides with a (micro)response is the Bear wobble. Bear zone peak 1-hr 0.125" is timestamped 20:02 (HUC 0403); the +0.02 ft / +7 cfs Bear uptick occurred 18:30–19:00 — i.e., it precedes the QPE peak by ~1–1.5 hr. A response cannot lead its forcing, so this is recession-tail noise, not a rainfall response. No valid lag is computable today.
1. PRECIPITATION SUMMARY Essentially a dry day. Basin-max 24-hr QPE 0.146" (Bear Creek zone; Headwaters Bear HUC 0.175"). Scattered trace cells in the lower/mid basin only: Outlet Richland 0.238", Calf Cr 0.201", Headwaters Bear 0.175", Outlet Bear 0.117". Boxley/Ponca/Pruitt zones recorded 0.0". Every value is at or below the documented absorbed-pulse floor (~0.10–0.30"); no zone-average reached even 0.15".
2. GAUGE RESPONSES None. All seven gauges are in pure recession from the Event-20 flood limb — every gauge's daily max equals its first (00:00) reading. The lone perturbation (Bear +0.02 ft / +7 cfs at 18:30–19:00) is sub-floor noise that leads the day's rain peak and is dismissed.
Recession status (Event-20 limb, Day 3 post-peak): - St. Joe 3600 → 2350 cfs (8.29 → 7.06 ft). Solidly mid-Optimal (200–8000). - Harriet 4780 → 3070 cfs (8.17 → 6.84 ft). Mid-Optimal (200–9370). - Ponca 323 → 230 cfs. Still Optimal but descending toward Low-but-Floatable (200) — confirms the Event-19/20 pattern that Ponca (smallest mainstem drainage) is first to exit. - Pruitt 684 → 488 cfs (5.43 → 4.90 ft). Optimal, clean recession. - Boxley 2.93 → 2.67 ft — pool draining, well below Hailstone Low-Floatable (3.7). - Richland 2.74 → 2.30 ft; Bear 3.32 → 3.06 ft / 165 cfs — flashy tributaries returning toward pre-event baseline.
3. RAINFALL-RESPONSE PAIRS None computable. Today is a clean negative data point for Open Q10 (absorbed-pulse floor): a 0.146"-zone-max pulse (0.175" HUC peak) on a moist-but-receding antecedent (Bear 7-day 4.51" → still wet) produced zero attributable rise. This is consistent with — and slightly raises confidence in — the Day-104 corollary (~0.10" absorbed completely). Note the antecedent here is wetter than Day 104 yet still no response, reinforcing that forcing magnitude, not antecedent, gates detection below ~0.2".
4. DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION None. No rises to route. The four-gauge mainstem limb (Ponca→Pruitt→St. Joe→Harriet) is in coherent simultaneous decay.
5. MULTI-DAY EVENTS Day 108 is the third day of the Event-20 flood-limb recession (peak Day 106, recession Days 107–108). Extending the high-flow dQ/dt-vs-Q curve at the trunk: - St. Joe: ~90 cfs/hr at ~3500 cfs (00:00–02:00) decaying to ~50 cfs/hr at ~2700 cfs (12:00–14:00); stage ~0.05 ft/hr. This slots neatly between Day-107's ~103 cfs/hr @3800 and Event-19's ~32 cfs/hr @1500. - Harriet: ~116 cfs/hr at ~4500 cfs (00:00–05:00) decaying to ~70 cfs/hr at ~3300 cfs (mid-day). Persistent limb offset holds — Harriet sits ~700 cfs higher than St. Joe and falls faster in absolute terms, as documented. Both lower-mainstem gauges remain in Optimal: the multi-day-to-multi-week Optimal recreation window predicted after the Event-20 trunk flood is now confirmed into a third day.
6. ANOMALIES OR SURPRISES None. A textbook recession-and-trace day. Two minor confirmations worth logging: (i) no USGS rating-curve step has appeared at any gauge through Day 108 despite Event-20's >2× flood stages — the historically-expected post-record-event field-revision artifact still has not materialized (keep watching Bear/Richland/Pruitt Days 109+); (ii) the Bear wobble illustrates the discipline of timing-checking — a +0.02 ft uptick that precedes its candidate forcing is noise, not signal.