Daily Analysis

PRE-ANALYSIS (per-gauge facts, all timestamps CDT):

• Boxley (07055646): (a) first 2.66 ft @00:00; (b) max 2.66 ft @00:00; (c) last 2.49 ft @23:30; (d) intraday-low 2.49 ft @23:30; (e) no low→peak rise — monotonic recession, 0.0 ft largest hourly rise. Pure recession (max = first reading).
• Ponca (07055660): (a) first 227 cfs @00:00; (b) max 227 cfs @00:00; (c) last 177 cfs @23:30; (d) low 177 cfs @22:45 & 23:30; (e) no rise — monotonic. Crossed below 200 cfs (Optimal→Low-but-Floatable) at ~12:00–13:00 (196 cfs by noon).
• Pruitt (07055680): (a) first 4.89 ft / 484 cfs @00:00; (b) max 4.89 ft @00:00 / 484 cfs @00:00; (c) last 4.58 ft / 370 cfs @23:30; (d) height low 4.56 @22:45, discharge low 364 @22:45; (e) trivial wobbles (+0.01 ft @01:45, +0.02 ft height bumps and ~+3–4 cfs steps) — recession-tail noise on zero QPE, not a response. Optimal.
• St. Joe (07056000): (a) first 7.02 ft / 2310 cfs @00:00; (b) max 7.02 ft / 2310 cfs @00:00; (c) last 6.27 ft / 1670 cfs @22:45; (d) low 6.27 / 1670 @22:45; (e) no rise — monotonic. Mid-Optimal.
• Harriet (07056700): (a) first 6.77 ft / 2980 cfs @00:00; (b) max 6.77 ft / 2980 cfs @00:00; (c) last 6.09 ft / 2200 cfs @23:45; (d) low 6.09 / 2200 @23:45; (e) minor +0.02 ft @15:00 and +0.03 ft @13:15 (6.36→6.39) wobbles — recession-tail noise (zero QPE). Optimal.
• Richland (07055875): (a) first 2.29 ft @00:00; (b) max 2.29 ft @00:00; (c) last 2.00 ft @23:00; (d) low 2.00 @23:00; (e) +0.01 ft @06:15 karst wobble only. Below pre-event baseline.
• Bear Creek (07056515): (a) first 3.06 ft / 165 cfs @00:00; (b) max 3.06 ft / 165 cfs @00:00; (c) last 2.85 ft / 111 cfs @23:15; (d) low 2.85 / 111 @23:15; (e) no rise — monotonic flashy recession.

(f) QPE-peak timing: basin-max 24-hr QPE = 0.000". No rainfall anywhere in the network today; no attribution lags to compute.

1. PRECIPITATION SUMMARY: Zero. All 37 HUC12s recorded 0.000" 24-hr. This is the second dry day in three (D-2 also 0.000"; D-1 had the 0.146" Bear-zone trace). Clean recession-only baseline day — the 9th of the study (Days 92, 95, 97, 102, 103, 104, 107, 108, 109).

2. GAUGE RESPONSES: No rainfall responses. Every gauge is in pure Event-20 flood-limb recession (Day 4). Only notable threshold event: Ponca dropped below 200 cfs into Low-but-Floatable around midday (227→177 cfs over the day), confirming the Day-108 prediction (Open Q12e) that Ponca — the smallest mainstem drainage — would be first to exit Optimal Day 109. St. Joe (1670 cfs) and Harriet (2200 cfs) remain solidly mid-Optimal; Pruitt (370 cfs) Optimal. Day-1 wobbles at Harriet (+0.02–0.03 ft) and Pruitt are recession-tail noise on zero QPE.

3. RAINFALL-RESPONSE PAIRS: None — zero QPE basin-wide. Nothing to pair or compare.

4. DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION: None — no pulse to route. Recession-only.

5. MULTI-DAY EVENTS: Continuation of Event-20 flood-limb recession, now Day 4. Recession-rate points (extend the dQ/dt-vs-Q curve from Open Q11): - St. Joe: 2310→1670 cfs over 22.75 hr ≈ ~28 cfs/hr at ~2000 cfs; stage 7.02→6.27 ft = ~0.033 ft/hr. Slots neatly below Day-108's ~50 cfs/hr @2700 and above Event-19's ~32 cfs/hr @1500. - Harriet: 2980→2200 cfs over 23.75 hr ≈ ~33 cfs/hr at ~2600 cfs; stage 6.77→6.09 = ~0.029 ft/hr. Persistent limb offset confirmed again — Harriet sits ~530 cfs higher than St. Joe (2200 vs 1670) and falls modestly faster in absolute terms, consistent with the flow-level/limb-position explanation. - Bear Creek: 165→111 cfs, flashy tail approaching pre-event baseline (k still within documented 0.017–0.024/hr band). - Day-over-day fractional ratio St. Joe Day108→109: 2350→1670 end-values ≈ 0.71 — within the documented 0.5–0.9 band, asymptoting toward baseflow-limited.

Both St. Joe and Harriet remain Optimal into Day 4 — multi-day-to-multi-week Optimal window from the study-record Event-20 trunk flood continues, exactly as expected.

6. ANOMALIES OR SURPRISES: None. Textbook recession day. No USGS rating-curve field-revision step at any gauge through Day 109 — now four days post-record-peak with >2× flood stages and still no discrete cfs step. The historically-expected post-major-event field artifact has not appeared; the active-weather field-calibration regime continues to produce high-confidence smooth cfs. Keep watching Bear/Richland/Pruitt Days 110+.