Daily Analysis

PRE-ANALYSIS (per-gauge facts, today Day 112, CDT):

• Boxley (height): (a) first 2.21 ft @00:00; (b) max 2.21 ft @00:00 (trivial +0.01 wobble to 2.17 @09:30); (c) last 2.11 ft @23:30; (d) intraday low 2.11 ft @23:00–23:30; (e) no net low→peak rise — pure recession. Seepage ≈ (2.21−2.11)/23.5 hr ≈ 0.0043 ft/hr.
• Ponca (cfs): (a) 122 @00:00; (b) max 122 @00:00; (c) last 109 @23:30; (d) low 109 @21:15–23:30; (e) none — pure recession. Solidly Too Low.
• Pruitt (height+cfs): (a) 4.13 ft / 232 cfs @00:00; (b) max 4.14 ft @00:30 / 235 cfs @00:15; (c) last 4.01 ft / 200 cfs @23:30; (d) low 4.00 ft @20:30 / 197 cfs @20:30; (e) trivial recession-tail wobble (197→206 cfs over ~30 min late evening, sub-resolution). Pruitt crossed the 200-cfs Optimal→Low-but-Floatable boundary today (dipped to 197 @20:30, hovering ~200–206 at day end).
• St. Joe (height+cfs): (a) 5.23 ft / 955 cfs @00:00; (b) max 955 @00:00; (c) last 4.95 ft / 796 cfs @22:45; (d) low 796 @22:45; (e) none — pure recession. Full-day ≈ (955−796)/22.75 hr ≈ 7 cfs/hr @ ~875 cfs; stage ~0.012 ft/hr.
• Harriet (height+cfs): (a) 5.23 ft / 1330 cfs @00:00; (b) max 1330 @00:00; (c) last 4.98 ft / 1110 cfs @23:45; (d) low 1110 @23:00–23:45; (e) none — pure recession. Full-day ≈ (1330−1110)/23.75 hr ≈ 9.3 cfs/hr @ ~1220 cfs; stage ~0.011 ft/hr.
• Richland (height): (a) 1.57 @00:00; (b) max 1.58 @00:15; (c) last 1.43 @23:00; (d) low 1.43 @23:00; (e) trivial +0.01 @19:30 karst wobble. Flashy tail, well below pre-event baseline.
• Bear Cr (height+cfs): (a) 2.55 ft / 58.7 cfs @00:00; (b) max 58.7 @00:00; (c) last 2.45 ft / 46.4 cfs @23:15; (d) low 46.4 @21:45–23:15; (e) none — flashy tail at/below pre-event baseline.

(f) QPE-peak attribution: Basin-max 24-hr QPE today = 0.005" (Boxley zone); Bear 0.001", all other zones 0.000". There is no rainfall to attribute — no lag or transfer computations are possible or warranted today.

1. PRECIPITATION SUMMARY: Effectively zero. The entire basin recorded ≤0.005" — Boxley HUC 0201 0.005" (peak 1-hr 0.005" @20:02 CDT), Headwaters-Bear HUC 0403 0.001". Every other HUC12 is 0.000". This is the driest day of the Event-20 recession and one of the driest of the study. No spatial structure, no intensity.

2. GAUGE RESPONSES: None attributable to rain. Every gauge is in pure recession (each daily max = the 00:00 reading), continuing the Event-20 flood-limb drawdown into recession Day 7. The only threshold-relevant motion: - Pruitt crossed the 200-cfs Optimal→Low-but-Floatable boundary (low 197 cfs @20:30), exactly as projected Day 111 (Day 112–113 window). Pruitt is now the second mainstem gauge below Optimal, after Ponca. - Ponca solidly Too Low (109 cfs). - St. Joe (796 cfs) and Harriet (1110 cfs) remain solidly mid-Optimal — multi-day Optimal window confirmed into Day 7 on the lower mainstem.

3. RAINFALL-RESPONSE PAIRS: None. QPE is essentially zero basin-wide; no pairs to form. This is a clean recession/non-detection baseline day. It reinforces (trivially) the receding-basin absorbed-pulse floor — but at 0.005" basin-max it carries no new threshold information beyond Days 110–111.

4. DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION: None — no forcing, no rises. All gauges fall monotonically.

5. MULTI-DAY EVENTS: Continuation of the Event-20 recession (peak Day 106). Recession-rate points extended into the deep baseflow-limited band: - St. Joe ~7 cfs/hr @ ~875 cfs (stage ~0.012 ft/hr) — slower than yesterday's ~11 @1100, continuing the bend into the ~10–15 cfs/hr baseflow floor; St. Joe (796 cfs) is now below the Event-19 Day-104 ~800-cfs reference. - Harriet ~9.3 cfs/hr @ ~1220 cfs (stage ~0.011 ft/hr). Persistent Harriet limb offset confirmed again (~310 cfs higher: 1110 vs 796 St. Joe at day end; identical-stage corollary continues). - Boxley seepage ~0.0043 ft/hr (2.11 ft, below all recreational thresholds, below pre-event baseline). - Bear (46.4 cfs) and Richland (1.43 ft) at new post-event lows, deep in pre-event-baseline overshoot. - NO rating-curve step at any gauge through Day 112 — seven days post-record-peak with formerly >2× flood stages and still no discrete cfs step. Keep watching Bear/Richland/Pruitt for the historically-expected post-major-event field-revision artifact.

6. ANOMALIES OR SURPRISES: None. Everything is consistent with a deep, baseflow-limited Event-20 recession on a now-dry basin. The only noteworthy item is confirmation timing: Pruitt's 200-cfs crossing landed precisely in the Day 112–113 window predicted Day 111 — a small win for the recession-trajectory projection. St. Joe and Harriet's persistence in mid-Optimal at recession Day 7 supports the "lower-mainstem flood → multi-week Optimal window" expectation.