PRE-ANALYSIS PROCEDURE (per-gauge facts, Day 111, all timestamps CDT):
(f) QPE-peak timing for attribution: No gauge response is attributable to today's rain. Today's QPE peaks ran 12:02–14:02 CDT (e.g., Boxley HUC 0201 0.020"/hr @12:02; Bear HUC 0403 0.034"/hr @14:02; Richland 0.019"/hr @14:02). Every gauge max coincides with the 00:00 first reading and falls monotonically thereafter — no peak follows any QPE peak. Nothing to pair.
1. PRECIPITATION SUMMARY: Trace, basin-wide. Basin-max 24-hr QPE 0.043" (Boxley zone; HUC 0201 0.043"/0.020"/hr). Secondary specks: Richland zone 0.023" (Falling Water 0.024", Headwaters Richland 0.022"), Bear zone 0.020" (Headwaters Bear 0.035"/0.034"/hr). St. Joe own-zone 0.002", Pruitt 0.000", Harriet 0.000". This is less forcing than yesterday's already-absorbed 0.216" — a clean trace day, effectively dry.
2. GAUGE RESPONSES: None attributable. Every mainstem and tributary gauge is in pure flood-limb recession (Event-20 recession Day 6), each gauge's daily max = its 00:00 reading. Day-over-day declines: St. Joe 1220→967 cfs (5.65→5.25 ft); Harriet 1700→1350 cfs (5.61→5.25 ft); Pruitt 287→235 cfs (4.32→4.13 ft); Ponca 141→122 cfs; Boxley 2.33→2.21 ft (seepage); Richland 1.74→1.57 ft; Bear 78.2→58.7 cfs (2.68→2.55 ft). The 0.043"/0.020"/hr on Boxley's draining pool, 0.034"/hr Headwaters-Bear burst, and 0.024" Richland produced zero perturbation — consistent with the receding-basin absorbed-pulse floor.
Threshold status: Ponca solidly Too Low (122 cfs, entered Too Low ~16:00 Day 110). Pruitt approaching the Optimal→Low-but-Floatable boundary — 235 cfs at day's end, declining ~2–3 cfs/hr, projected to cross 200 within ~1–2 days (watch Day 112–113). St. Joe (967 cfs) and Harriet (1350 cfs) remain mid-Optimal into recession Day 6.
3. RAINFALL-RESPONSE PAIRS: None. No QPE-to-response pair exists today; all forcing was below detection. This is a higher-confidence reinforcement of the Day-104/108/110 absorbed-pulse finding: with the basin-max only 0.043" (well below the ~0.22" floor established Day 110), non-detection is expected and confirmed.
4. DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION: None. No coherent pulse to route.
5. MULTI-DAY EVENTS: Continuation of the Event-20 flood-limb recession (Day 6). Recession-rate points extended: - St. Joe ~11 cfs/hr @ ~1100 cfs (1220→967 over 22.75 hr); stage ~0.018 ft/hr. - Harriet ~15 cfs/hr @ ~1500 cfs (1700→1350 over 22.75 hr); stage ~0.016 ft/hr. - Boxley seepage ~0.0051 ft/hr (slowing toward the Day-102–104 ~0.0077 reference floor; now ~6 days from peak). - Bear flashy tail ~0.8 cfs/hr.
St. Joe's ~11 cfs/hr @1100 sits squarely on the documented nonlinear dQ/dt-vs-Q curve, now bending into the baseflow-limited band (~10–15 cfs/hr @~800–1100 cfs). The persistent Harriet limb offset holds (Harriet ~380 cfs higher than St. Joe, falling slightly faster in absolute terms because it peaked ~6 hr later).
6. ANOMALIES OR SURPRISES: None. Textbook recession Day 6. NO USGS rating-curve field-revision step at any gauge through six days post-record-peak with >2× flood stages — the historically-expected post-major-event step still has not appeared (keep watching Bear/Richland/Pruitt). The only thing worth flagging forward: Pruitt nearing the 200-cfs Optimal floor, and Day-111's afternoon QPE peaks again ran late but stayed trace — no follow-on event materialized.