Daily Analysis

PRE-ANALYSIS (per-gauge facts, today 2026-06-25, all times CDT; QPE peak_1hr_time values carry a "Z"/UTC stamp and are converted −5 h to CDT for lag math):

• Boxley (height): (a) first 3.39 @00:00; (b) max 3.39 @00:00; (c) last 3.00 @23:30; (d) low 3.00 @23:30; (e) no low→peak rise — monotonic decline, pure recession (Event-21 pool drain). Zone QPE 0.203" sub-threshold.
• Ponca (cfs): (a) first 493 @00:00; (b) max 493 @00:00; (c) last 282 @23:30; (d) low 282 @23:30; (e) none — pure recession. Zone QPE 0.234" sub-threshold.
• Pruitt (height/cfs): (a) first 5.09 / 559 @00:00; (b) max 5.24 / 612 @07:30; (c) last 4.92 / 495 @23:30; (d) low 4.91 / 492 @22:30; (e) low→peak: 5.03→5.24 ft (+0.21 ft) / 538→612 cfs (+74 cfs), low ~02:45 → peak 07:30 (~4.75 hr) — a morning routed bump, then recession.
• St. Joe (height/cfs): (a) first 6.16 / 1630 @00:00; (b) max 6.16 / 1630 @00:00 (carryover); (c) last 5.94 / 1470 @22:45; (d) low 5.80 / 1370 @15:45; (e) low→peak: 5.80→5.95 ft (+0.15 ft) / 1370→1470 cfs (+100 cfs), low 15:45 → still rising at 22:00–22:45 (leading edge).
• Harriet (height/cfs): (a) first 5.93 / 2030 @00:00; (b) max 5.94 / 2040 @00:15 (carryover); (c) last 5.82 / 1920 @23:45; (d) low 5.63 / 1720 @15:15–15:30; (e) low→peak: 5.63→5.83 ft (+0.20 ft) / 1720→1930 cfs (+210 cfs), low 15:15 → rising through end of day; largest hourly rise 0.13 ft @17:00 (leading edge, peak pending overnight).
• Richland (height): (a) first 1.49 @00:00; (b) max 1.51 @08:30; (c) last 1.43 @23:00; (d) low 1.43 @22:30–23:00; (e) trivial +0.02 ft morning karst wobble — net declining to a new post-event low, no rain response.
• Bear Creek (height/cfs): (a) first 2.65 / 73.3 @00:00; (b) max 2.65 / 73.3 @00:00 (carryover); (c) last 2.57 / 61.4 @23:15; (d) low 2.57 / 61.4 @22:15; (e) mid-day low→bump: 2.58→2.62 ft (+0.04 ft) / 62.8→68.6 cfs (+5.8 cfs), low ~17:15 → peak 19:00 (~1 hr lag), then resumed recession.

CONTEXT NOTE (gap Days 113–116): The hypothesis doc was last updated Day 112. Prior-day summaries show a major intervening event — "Event 21" (≈Days 113–114, undocumented in my record): St. Joe peaked 11.34 ft / 7890 cfs @ Jun 23 (Day 115) 03:00; Harriet 9.60 ft / 6870 cfs @ 09:30; Pruitt >8.17 ft / >2290 cfs — which reset every gauge far above the Day-112 baseflow values. Day 116 added a moderate upper-basin pulse (basin-max 0.490" Boxley). Today is Event-21 recession overprinted by a fresh lower-basin pulse.

1. Precipitation Summary

A lower-basin / Harriet / ungauged-concentrated evening convective complex (peak hour ~16:00–18:02 CDT). Spatial maxima: - Ungauged tier (below Harriet) — the headline: Hickory Cr 2.176" (0.699"/hr), Boat Cr 1.808" (0.696"/hr), Rush Cr 1.338", Davis 1.296", Leatherwood 1.175", Clabber 1.134", Bratton 1.132". - Harriet zone: Spring Cr 1.952" (0.965"/hr, area-peak intensity), Water Cr 1.021", Dry Cr 0.816", Tomahawk 0.629". - Pruitt zone: Cove 0.795" (0.367"/hr), Hoskin 0.577"; Flatrock (St. Joe) 0.833". - Bear: Outlet Bear 0.697", Hdwtrs Bear 0.352" (zone 0.524"). - St. Joe own-zone: Rocky Hollow 0.528", Big Cr-Buffalo 0.36", Calf 0.355" (zone 0.328"). - Upper basin light: Boxley 0.203", Ponca 0.234", Richland 0.206".

Antecedent now wet basin-wide (Boxley 7-day 4.14", Ponca-zone 3.9–4.3", St. Joe sub-zones 1.7–2.4", Harriet 1.6–1.9", Bear 1.6–2.0", Richland 2.0–2.1").

2. Gauge Responses

• Upper mainstem (Boxley, Ponca): pure Event-21 recession; zero response to 0.20–0.23" — sub-threshold even on a 4"+ wet antecedent (forcing-magnitude gating).
• Pruitt: morning routed bump +0.21 ft / +74 cfs to 5.24 ft / 612 cfs @07:30 — a routed/local response to Day-116 upper-basin rain (precedes today's evening rain), then recession.
• St. Joe: turned from recession to a small rise in the afternoon/evening, +0.15 ft / +100 cfs from the 15:45 low (still rising at day end). Richland flat (declining to a new low) → signal separation: this rise is Big Cr / Calf / Rocky Hollow / mainstem-misc own-zone driven, NOT Richland sub-basin.
• Harriet: clearest fresh signal — leading edge +0.20 ft / +210 cfs from the 15:15 low, rising through the day (largest hourly rise 0.13 ft @17:00). Direct Harriet-zone response (Spring Cr 1.952", Water Cr 1.021"); Bear surged only +0.04 ft so this is overwhelmingly own-zone, not Bear-confluence.
• Bear: minor flash bump +0.04 ft / +5.8 cfs (peak 19:00) then recession.
• Richland: no response; new post-event low 1.43 ft.

3. Rainfall-Response Pairs

• Harriet (direct-zone): QPE peak 0.965"/hr @16:02 CDT (Spring Cr) → rise onset ~16:45–17:00 CDT ⇒ onset lag ~1 hr (peak still developing, true peak-to-peak pending overnight). Transfer so far ~0.18 ft/in (0.20 ft ÷ 1.12" zone) — leading edge only, will climb. Antecedent moist (Harriet 7-day 1.6–1.9"). Compare Event 20 Day-105 direct (2.532" → +2.61 ft, 1.03 ft/in, moist-low) and Event 5 (1.10" Water Cr → +0.10 ft). Today's leading-edge ratio is below those but incomplete — defer judgment; flag as "main response expected Day 118."
• Bear (direct-zone): QPE peak 0.317"/hr @18:02 CDT (Outlet Bear) → Bear peak 19:00 CDT ⇒ lag ~1 hr. Transfer ~0.08 ft/in (0.04 ÷ 0.524"), mid-stage (2.58 ft) moist antecedent (~1.6–2.0"). This is in the damped band — well below Event 17's wet-mid-stage 0.51 ft/in and even below moist Events 7/12 (0.22–0.25). >30% below prior; but forcing was modest/brief and this is a leading edge — low confidence; do not yet revise the stage-dependence function. Watch for a larger overnight rise.
• St. Joe (own-zone): QPE Rocky Hollow 0.281"/hr @17:02 CDT → St. Joe still rising 22:00–22:45 (leading edge, no peak yet). Provisional ~0.46 ft/in — incomplete; consistent with moist own-zone forcing.
• Pruitt (routed): peak 07:30 CDT vs Day-116 Boxley QPE peak 0.391"/hr @ Jun-24 15:02 CDT ⇒ ~16.5-hr lag if Boxley-sourced, but mixed with local Pruitt-zone Day-116 (0.307") routing — velocity estimate unreliable; report as routed +74 cfs only.

4. Downstream Propagation

No clean cascade today. The mainstem chain is in Event-21 recession (Boxley→Ponca→Pruitt all declining or only locally bumped) while fresh rain hits the lower basin independently. The only routed mainstem signal is Pruitt's morning bump (Day-116 forcing). Harriet and St. Joe rose from their own zones, not from upstream propagation (Boxley/Ponca falling all day). No velocity computed.

5. Multi-Day Events

Today is Event-21 recession + a new lower-basin pulse (provisionally "Event 22"). Mainstem still elevated from Event 21 (St. Joe ~1470 cfs, Harriet ~1920 cfs — both mid-Optimal; Ponca 282 cfs and Pruitt 495 cfs both Optimal; vs Day-112 lows of 796/1110/109/200). The new pulse is only at its leading edge — Harriet/St. Joe/Bear turned upward in the evening and the heavy ungauged + Harriet-zone totals (Spring Cr 1.95", Hickory 2.18") will drive the main response overnight into Day 118. Flash-flood watch: the 1.8–2.2" ungauged bullseyes (Hickory, Boat Cr, with ~0.70"/hr) sit below Harriet, invisible to the gauge network (Open Q6) — downstream flash potential.

6. Anomalies or Surprises

• Sub-threshold gating confirmed on a very wet basin: Boxley 0.203" / Ponca 0.234" on a 4"+ 7-day antecedent produced zero response — reinforces that forcing magnitude (~<0.3"), not antecedent, gates detection (Event-12 paradox / Days 110–112 lineage).
• Bear's damped leading edge (0.08 ft/in) despite moist soil and low stage is the only mild surprise — but the forcing was modest/brief; not yet a contradiction of the stage-dependence model. Watch overnight.
• No rating-curve step at any gauge despite Event 21 having pushed St. Joe to ~7890 cfs days earlier — the long-awaited post-major-event USGS field-revision artifact still has not appeared (now ~2 weeks since the Event-20 record peak).
• Documentation gap (Days 113–116) is itself the biggest "surprise" — a near-flood Event-21 (St. Joe 11.34 ft / 7890 cfs) occurred and must be back-filled when those summaries are available.