Daily Analysis

PRE-ANALYSIS PROCEDURE (per-gauge facts, Day 118 / 2026-06-26, all timestamps CDT):

• Boxley (height): (a) first 2.99 ft @00:00; (b) max 3.00 ft @00:15; (c) last 2.80 ft @23:30; (d) intraday low 2.80 ft @23:30; (e) no low→peak rise — pure monotonic recession (largest hourly rise 0.0). Seepage phase, below all recreational thresholds.
• Ponca (discharge): (a) first 278 @00:00; (b) max 278 @00:00; (c) last 213 @23:30; (d) low 213 @23:30; (e) none — pure recession. Solidly Optimal but approaching the 200-cfs boundary.
• Pruitt: (a) height 4.89 / cfs 484 @00:00; (b) max 4.90 ft @00:15–00:45, 488 cfs @00:15; (c) last 4.59 ft / 374 cfs @23:30; (d) low 4.59 ft / 374 cfs (end of day); (e) only sub-resolution +0.02 ft @08:00 wobble — pure recession, solidly Optimal.
• St. Joe: (a) 5.92 ft / 1450 cfs @00:00; (b) max 5.92 ft / 1450 cfs @00:00; (c) last 5.53 ft / 1180 cfs @22:45; (d) low 5.53 / 1180 (end); (e) none — pure recession, mid-Optimal.
• Harriet: (a) 5.81 ft / 1910 cfs @00:00; (b) max 5.81 ft / 1910 cfs @00:00 (trivial +0.02 ft @01:30 wobble); (c) last 5.50 ft / 1590 cfs @22:45; (d) low 5.50 / 1590 (end); (e) +0.02 ft @01:30 PRECEDES any QPE peak → recession-tail noise. Pure recession, mid-Optimal.
• Richland: (a) 1.42 ft @00:00; (b) max 1.42 @00:00 (trivial +0.01 @11:15); (c) last 1.36 @23:00; (d) low 1.36; (e) none — pure recession, new post-event low.
• Bear Creek: (a) 2.57 ft / 61.4 cfs @00:00; (b) max 2.57 ft @00:00–02:00, 61.4 cfs; (c) last 2.49 ft / 51.0 cfs @23:15; (d) low 2.49 / 51.0; (e) +0.01 ft @02:00 PRECEDES the 03:02 CDT QPE peak → recession-tail noise. Pure recession, new post-event low.

(f) QPE-peak attribution: No gauge produced an attributable rise today, so no rainfall→response lag is computable. Today's heaviest 1-hr cells: Headwaters Bear (0403) 0.083"/hr @03:02 CDT; Water Cr (0408) 0.079"/hr @09:02 CDT; ungauged Hickory 0.064"/hr. Every gauge wobble either precedes its candidate QPE peak or is sub-resolution → all classed recession-tail noise per timing discipline.

1. PRECIPITATION SUMMARY Light, distributed, low-intensity rain. Basin-max 24-hr QPE 0.246" (Bear Creek zone); Headwaters-Bear HUC 0.27" (0.083"/hr), Outlet-Bear 0.222". Secondary centers: Harriet zone 0.163" (Water Cr 0.207"/0.079"/hr, Calf Cr 0.216"), ungauged 0.154" (Hickory 0.21", Boat 0.16"). Upper/mid basin minimal (Boxley 0.086", Ponca 0.042", Pruitt 0.018", St. Joe 0.082", Richland 0.102"). All zone averages well below the ~0.5" detection floor; peak intensity <0.10"/hr. No spatial coherence — scattered light cells.

2. GAUGE RESPONSES None. Every gauge is in pure recession (each daily max = the 00:00 reading) on the limb of the recent Event-21 re-elevation. St. Joe 1450→1180 cfs / 5.92→5.53 ft; Harriet 1910→1590 cfs / 5.81→5.50 ft; Pruitt 488→374 cfs; Ponca 278→213 cfs; Boxley 2.99→2.80 ft; Richland 1.42→1.36 ft (new post-event low); Bear 61.4→51.0 cfs / 2.49 ft (new post-event low). The Bear-zone 0.246" pulse — landing directly on Bear's own draining catchment — produced no Bear perturbation, and the Water-Cr/Calf-Cr cells produced no Harriet perturbation.

3. RAINFALL-RESPONSE PAIRS No pairs — today is a non-detection-on-recession day. This is a calibration negative datapoint for Open Q10. Today's 0.246" Bear-zone average (with a 0.083"/hr Headwaters-Bear burst) on a notably wet antecedent (Bear 7-day 1.95–2.63"; Harriet zone 2.35–3.38") was fully absorbed at every gauge.

Cross-event comparison: this extends the Event-20 absorbed-pulse series (Day 104 ~0.10" dry-moist; Day 108 0.146" wet; Day 110 0.216" wet; Day 111 0.043" wet; Day 112 0.005"). Today's 0.246" zone-average on an even wetter antecedent → still zero response raises the receding-basin absorbed-pulse floor to at least ~0.25" zone-average. Antecedent differs (wetter than all Event-20 recession days) yet outcome is identical → reconfirms that forcing magnitude, not antecedent, gates detection on an actively-receding watershed. No >30% deviation to flag — consistent with prior non-detections.

4. DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION None — no rises to route. Mainstem in coordinated recession. Recession-rate points (baseflow-limited band, fresh Event-21 limb): St. Joe ~12 cfs/hr @~1300 cfs (stage ~0.017 ft/hr); Harriet ~14 cfs/hr @~1750 cfs (stage ~0.014 ft/hr); Ponca ~2.8 cfs/hr; Pruitt ~4.9 cfs/hr; Boxley seepage ~0.008 ft/hr. Persistent Harriet limb offset confirmed again — Harriet sits ~410 cfs higher than St. Joe (1590 vs 1180) at near-identical stage (5.50 vs 5.53 ft), reconfirming the identical-stage/different-discharge effect and Harriet's later-peak limb position.

5. MULTI-DAY EVENTS Today is the recession limb of Event 21 — a moderate event that occurred during the un-summarized Days 113–115 (data gap), inferred from the strong re-elevation seen by Day-116 (St. Joe back to 2430 cfs / 7.15 ft, Harriet 3160 cfs, Pruitt 784 cfs, Bear 94 cfs, all far above the Day-112 deep-baseflow state of St. Joe 796 / Harriet 1110). A Day-117 (Jun 25) Harriet-zone secondary pulse (Spring Cr 1.952"/0.965"/hr, ungauged Hickory 2.176") drove a clean Harriet-zone-only response (Harriet 1720→2040 cfs, ~+320 cfs, ~5–6 hr lag) plus minor Pruitt/St. Joe bumps; that pulse is now dissipating into today's recession. Net effect: Event 21 re-loaded a fresh multi-day lower-mainstem Optimal window stacked on the Event-20 tail.

6. ANOMALIES OR SURPRISES None contradicting hypotheses. Two notes: (1) Pruitt has re-entered Optimal (374 cfs) after exiting to Low-but-Floatable on Day 112 — Event 21 reset it upward; (2) the data gap (Days 113–115) means Event 21's onset/peak transfer ratios and lags are unquantified — a limitation, not a contradiction. Rating curves remain clean: Bear steps 60.0→51.0 in standard 1.3–1.4-cfs increments with no discrete jump; still no post-record-event field-revision step at any gauge through Day 118 (now ~12 days past the Event-20 record peak).