Daily Analysis

PRE-ANALYSIS (per-gauge facts, all timestamps CDT):

• Boxley (height): (a) first 3.33 ft @00:00; (b) max 3.33 ft @00:00; (c) last 2.90 ft @23:30; (d) intraday low 2.90 ft @23:30; (e) no low→peak rise — pure recession from the Day-119 3.93-ft peak (~0.018 ft/hr drain).
• Ponca (discharge): (a) first 463 cfs @00:00; (b) max 463 cfs @00:00; (c) last 262 cfs @23:30; (d) low 262 cfs @23:30; (e) no rise — pure recession off the Day-119 758-cfs peak.
• Pruitt (height/discharge): (a) first 5.80 ft / 834 cfs @00:00; (b) max 5.80 ft / 834 cfs @00:00; (c) last 4.91 ft / 492 cfs @23:30; (d) low 4.91 ft / 492 cfs @23:30; (e) trivial end-of-day wobble (+0.01 ft @23:00, +noise) — otherwise recession. Pruitt's Event-22 peak occurred at the day boundary (~23:45 Day 119 / 00:00 Day 120): 5.81 ft / 838 cfs.
• St. Joe (height/discharge): (a) first 5.25 ft / 1000 cfs @00:00; (b) max 5.89 ft / 1430 cfs @~16:00 (height 5.89 @15:45–16:15; cfs 1430 @15:45–16:15); (c) last 5.70 ft / 1300 cfs @22:45; (d) low 5.23 ft / 991 cfs @03:00; (e) low→peak rise +0.66 ft / +439 cfs over ~13 hr (991 @03:00 → 1430 @16:00) — the Event-22 trunk arrival.
• Harriet (height/discharge): (a) first 5.21 ft / 1310 cfs @00:00; (b) max 5.45 ft / 1540 cfs @22:45 (still rising); (c) last 5.45 ft / 1540 cfs @22:45; (d) low 5.09 ft / 1200 cfs @~14:00 (5.09 held 13:45–17:00; cfs 1200 @14:00); (e) low→peak rise +0.36 ft / +340 cfs and CLIMBING (1200 @14:00 → 1540 @22:45) — Event-22 trunk reaching Harriet; peak pending Day 121.
• Richland (height): (a) first 1.30 ft @00:00; (b) max 1.30 ft @00:00; (c) last 1.21 ft @23:00; (d) low 1.21 ft @23:00; (e) no rise — pure recession, new post-event low.
• Bear (height/discharge): (a) first 2.42 ft / 43.1 cfs @00:00; (b) max 2.42 ft / 43.1 cfs @00:00; (c) last 2.33 ft / 34.3 cfs @23:15; (d) low 34.3 cfs @23:00; (e) no rise — pure recession, new post-event low.

(f) QPE-peak timing for attribution: Today's basin QPE = 0.000" everywhere — no rainfall to attribute. All of today's rises are propagation from the Day-119 upper-basin pulse (peak 1-hr ~09:02 CDT = 14:02Z, Terrapin 0.738"/hr / Beech 0.689"/hr). Per instructions I compute mainstem peak-to-peak deltas for the cascade, not QPE lags.

1. PRECIPITATION SUMMARY

Zero. Basin-max 24-hr QPE = 0.000". A clean dry recession/propagation day. 7-day antecedent totals rose sharply in the upper zones (Boxley 5.02", Ponca-Beech 5.02", Smith 5.26") reflecting the Day-119 event being absorbed into the cumulative window.

2. GAUGE RESPONSES

Two gauges moved upward today, both by propagation; the rest are in pure recession.

• St. Joe rose +0.66 ft / +439 cfs (991 @03:00 → 1430 cfs / 5.89 ft @~16:00), then began receding (1300 cfs @22:45). This is the Event-22 upper-basin pulse finally integrating at the trunk. Signal separation: Richland flat and at a new post-event low (1.30→1.21 ft) → the St. Joe rise is mainstem propagation, NOT a Richland-sub-basin signal — exactly as predicted Day 119.
• Harriet rising +0.36 ft / +340 cfs (1200 @14:00 → 1540 cfs / 5.45 ft @22:45, still climbing); peak deferred to Day 121. Signal separation: Bear flat at a new post-event low (43.1→34.3 cfs) → Harriet's rise is pure mainstem propagation, not Bear-confluence. Textbook.
• Boxley, Ponca, Pruitt: pure recession off their Day-119 Event-22 peaks. Pruitt's peak was captured at the day boundary (5.81 ft / 838 cfs).
• Richland, Bear: pure recession, both setting new post-event lows (deep overshoot below pre-event baseflow continues).

Magnitude check (Q3/Q4): St. Joe peaked at 1430 cfs = 18% of its 8000-cfs flood threshold. Far from flood — a modest, attenuated trunk bump, as expected.

3. RAINFALL-RESPONSE PAIRS

No today-QPE pairs (zero rain). The relevant pairs are completions of the Event-22 cascade measured against Day-119 forcing:

• Pruitt peak (confirmed today): Ponca peak 16:30 Day 119 → Pruitt peak ~23:45 Day 119 / 00:00 Day 120 = ~7.25 hr propagation. Pruitt rose +1.32 ft / +498 cfs from its Day-119 low (4.49 ft / 340 cfs) on 0.609" local zone QPE + the Ponca cascade. Height transfer 1.32/0.609 = 2.17 ft/in — well ABOVE the in-bank antecedent-independent ~1.4 ft/in anchor, but this is routing-dominated (Ponca-cascade stacked on local 0.609" forcing, the steep 21:00+ rise arriving >9 hr after local QPE), so it is NOT a clean local-zone transfer and should not be compared 1:1 to the ~1.4 anchor. Ponca→Pruitt 7.25 hr at ~500–840 cfs matches the prior "7.5 hr at ~500 cfs" node — consistent.
• St. Joe response: This is propagated, not direct (own-zone 0.271" produced no direct rise — confirmed). The rise magnitude is +0.66 ft / +439 cfs to 1430 cfs. Cross-event comparison: Event 19 (upper-only, flood-scale forcing) attenuated to St. Joe = 2900 cfs (36% of flood). Event 22 (upper-only, sub-1" forcing) attenuated to 1430 cfs (18% of flood) — proportionally smaller, same attenuation behavior. The upper-only-attenuation rule holds at sub-flood magnitude. Antecedent St. Joe 7-day ~2.3–2.5" (moist) vs Event-19's drier-leaning 0.45–1.2"; the moister soil did not produce a disproportionately larger trunk response — forcing magnitude/location dominates, consistent with prior findings.
• Ponca transfer (from yesterday): ~651 cfs/in node carried forward unchanged; today only adds recession data.

4. DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION

Clean mainstem cascade (Boxley→Ponca→Pruitt→St. Joe→Harriet only):

• Pruitt peak ~23:45 (Day 119) → St. Joe peak ~16:00 (Day 120) = ~16.25 hr. Straight-line Pruitt→St. Joe = 36.1 km; assuming sinuosity 1.7 → channel ≈ 61.4 km → velocity ≈ 1.05 m/s at ~500–1400 cfs (mid-low flow). Sits within the prior "Pruitt→St. Joe 11–15 hr wet / 17–23 hr dry" band — 16.25 hr is intermediate, matching moist-recession conditions.
• St. Joe peak ~16:00 → Harriet not yet peaked at 22:45 (lag >6.75 hr; Harriet still climbing). Consistent with the 6–13 hr St. Joe→Harriet band; final value pending Day 121.
• Boxley→Ponca→Pruitt peaks already logged Day 119; no new mainstem segment opened today beyond Pruitt→St. Joe→Harriet.

5. MULTI-DAY EVENTS

Today is Day 2 of Event 22 — the trunk-integration day. Event-22 sequence now: Boxley peak 3.93 ft @14:00 Day 119 → Ponca 758 cfs @16:30 Day 119 → Pruitt 838 cfs / 5.81 ft @~00:00 Day 120 → St. Joe 1430 cfs / 5.89 ft @~16:00 Day 120 → Harriet ≥1540 cfs (rising) late Day 120, peak Day 121. Total event signature: a coherent upper-basin sub-1" pulse on a very-wet antecedent that produced a runnable Hailstone window (Day 119), reset Ponca/Pruitt firmly into Optimal, and delivered a modest non-flood trunk bump (St. Joe to 18% of flood). This is the small-magnitude analog of Event 19's upper-only attenuation, confirmed.

Recreational status: All five mainstem gauges Optimal — Ponca 262 cfs, Pruitt 492 cfs (both >200), St. Joe 1430→1300 cfs, Harriet 1540 cfs. Boxley back below all Hailstone thresholds (2.90 ft); its runnable window closed Day 119. Event 22 has extended the near-continuous summer Optimal stretch on the lower mainstem yet again.

6. ANOMALIES OR SURPRISES

None contradicting hypotheses. The day is a clean confirmation: (1) upper-only sub-1" forcing attenuates to a modest non-flood trunk response (Open Q12a answered, expectation met); (2) Richland-flat and Bear-flat signal separation both confirmed the St. Joe/Harriet rises as mainstem propagation; (3) Ponca→Pruitt and Pruitt→St. Joe lags landed squarely in the established flow-dependent bands; (4) no rating-curve step at any gauge — now ~15 days post-Event-20 record peak (the historically-expected post-major-event USGS field-revision artifact still has not appeared). Bear and Richland continue their deep post-event overshoot to new lows. Nothing surprising.