Daily Analysis

PRE-ANALYSIS PROCEDURE (per-gauge facts, all timestamps CDT):

• Boxley (height): (a) first 2.89 ft @00:00; (b) max 2.89 ft @00:00; (c) last 2.63 ft @23:30; (d) intraday low 2.63 ft @23:30; (e) NO low→peak rise — pure monotonic recession (~0.011 ft/hr seepage). Max = first reading.
• Ponca (discharge): (a) first 258 cfs @00:00; (b) max 258 cfs @00:00; (c) last 183 cfs @23:30; (d) low 183 cfs @23:15/23:30; (e) no rise — pure recession. Max = first reading.
• Pruitt (height/discharge): (a) first 4.90 ft / 488 cfs @00:00; (b) max 4.90 ft @00:00 / 488 cfs @00:00; (c) last 4.48 ft / 337 cfs @23:30; (d) low 4.46 ft @23:15 / 331 cfs @23:15; (e) no meaningful rise (±0.01 ft jitter) — pure recession. Max = first reading.
• St. Joe (height/discharge): (a) first 5.67 ft / 1280 cfs @00:00; (b) max 5.67 ft / 1280 cfs @00:00; (c) last 5.18 ft / 961 cfs @22:45; (d) low 5.18 ft / 961 cfs @22:45; (e) no rise — pure recession from the Day-120 Event-22 peak (1430 cfs @16:00 Day 120). Max = first reading.
• Harriet (height/discharge): (a) first 5.50 ft / 1590 cfs @00:00; (b) max 5.52 ft @00:30 / 1610 cfs @00:30; (c) last 5.14 ft / 1250 cfs @22:45; (d) low 5.14 ft / 1250 cfs @22:45; (e) low→peak: this is the EVENT-22 HARRIET PEAK — the day opened still rising, crested 1610 cfs / 5.52 ft @00:30, then receded all day. The pending peak from Day 120 is now captured.
• Richland (height): (a) first 1.20 ft @00:00; (b) max 1.20 ft @00:00; (c) last 1.12 ft @23:00; (d) low 1.12 ft @20:00→; (e) no rise — pure recession, new post-event low 1.12 ft (below the Day-120 low of 1.21).
• Bear Cr (height/discharge): (a) first 2.33 ft / 34.3 cfs @00:00; (b) max 2.33 ft / 34.3 cfs @00:00; (c) last 2.25 ft / 27.8 cfs @23:15; (d) low 2.25 ft / 27.8 cfs @22:45; (e) no rise — pure recession, new post-event low 27.8 cfs / 2.25 ft.

(f) QPE-peak timing for attribution: Today's and yesterday's basin-max QPE = 0.000". The only driving rainfall is the Day-119 (Jun 27) upper-basin pulse, Ponca-zone peak 1-hr 0.689" @09:02 CDT. Today's single attributable response (the Harriet peak) is propagation from St. Joe, not direct rainfall, so I compute the peak-to-peak gauge lag below rather than a QPE lag.

1. PRECIPITATION SUMMARY Zero rain. Basin-max 24-hr QPE = 0.000" (every HUC12, every zone). Second consecutive bone-dry day (Day 120 also 0.000"). No precipitation to analyze.

2. GAUGE RESPONSES Six of seven gauges are in pure recession (max = first reading). The single exception is Harriet, which crested 1610 cfs / 5.52 ft @00:30 CDT — the completion of the Event-22 propagation cascade whose peak was pending at Day-120's boundary. After 00:30 Harriet receded steadily to 1250 cfs / 5.14 ft by 22:45.

Signal separation (textbook, again): Richland flat at a new post-event low (1.20→1.12 ft) and Bear flat at a new post-event low (34.3→27.8 cfs). Both tributary separators confirm the Harriet crest = pure mainstem propagation from St. Joe, NOT a Bear-confluence or Richland-sub-basin contribution.

Threshold crossings: - Ponca crossed 200 cfs → Low-but-Floatable ~18:00 CDT (203 @17:45 → 196 @18:00), ending the Event-22 Optimal window at Ponca (the smallest drainage, first to exit in every event). Ended day at 183 cfs. - Pruitt 488→337 cfs, St. Joe 1280→961 cfs, Harriet 1610→1250 cfs — all remain solidly mid-Optimal.

3. RAINFALL-RESPONSE PAIRS No new rainfall today; no direct QPE→gauge pairs. The propagation lag is reported in §4. (Per protocol, no transfer ratio is computed against today's nil QPE.)

4. DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION St. Joe → Harriet (Event-22 final leg): St. Joe peak 1430 cfs @~16:00 Day 120 → Harriet peak 1610 cfs @00:30 Day 121 = 8.5 hr peak-to-peak. Straight-line St. Joe→Harriet = 17.9 km; assuming sinuosity 1.7 → ~30.4 km channel; 30.4 km / 8.5 hr ≈ 3.58 km/hr ≈ 0.99 m/s. This is a moderate-flow value, consistent with the 8.25-hr/moderate node (Events 2, 19) and slower than the 6–6.5-hr flood node (Events 15, 20). Closes the Event-22 St. Joe→Harriet lag at 8.5 hr (was logged ">6.75 hr, pending").

Total Event-22 cascade: Boxley peak 14:00 Day 119 → Harriet peak 00:30 Day 121 = ~34.5 hr Boxley→Harriet, in the 33–36 hr wet/moist band.

5. MULTI-DAY EVENTS Today completes Event 22. The Harriet crest of 1610 cfs = 17% of the 9,370-cfs flood threshold — essentially identical proportionally to St. Joe's 1430 cfs = 18% of its 8,000-cfs threshold. This nails the upper-only-attenuation rule at sub-flood magnitude: an upper-basin sub-1" pulse propagated to ~17–18% of flood at both lower-mainstem gauges, the proportional analog of Event 19's upper flood-scale forcing → 30–36%, and Event 21's study-record upper flood → 73–99%. All three events show upper-only forcing attenuating through the routing/storage of the intervening basin. Open Q12a (Harriet peak) is now fully ANSWERED.

6. ANOMALIES OR SURPRISES None. A clean, textbook recession/propagation day. Worth noting: Richland (1.12 ft) and Bear (27.8 cfs / 2.25 ft) continue the persistent post-event overshoot — both are now below their pre-Event-22 starting values, confirming the slow-phase under-shoot pattern documented since Event 20. No USGS rating-curve step at any gauge — now ~16 days post-Event-20 record peak with the historically-expected post-major-event field-revision artifact still absent. Continue watching Bear/Richland/Pruitt for revision steps. The persistent Harriet limb offset holds — Harriet sits ~290 cfs above St. Joe at similar stage because it peaked 8.5 hr later and is higher on its limb.