Daily Analysis

PRE-ANALYSIS (per-gauge facts, all timestamps CDT):

• Boxley (height): (a) first 2.63 ft @00:00; (b) max 2.63 ft @00:00; (c) last 2.44 ft @23:30; (d) intraday-low 2.44 ft @23:15–23:30; (e) no low→peak rise — monotonic recession (~0.008 ft/hr). Max = first reading → pure recession.
• Ponca (discharge): (a) 180 cfs @00:00; (b) max 180 @00:00; (c) last 137 @23:30; (d) low 137 @22:45–23:30; (e) none — pure recession. Crossed 150 → Too Low ~16:00 CDT (150 @15:15 → 147 @16:00).
• Pruitt (height/discharge): (a) 4.46 ft / 331 cfs @00:00; (b) max 4.47 ft @00:30 / 334 cfs @00:30; (c) last 4.18 ft / 246 cfs @23:30; (d) low 4.18 ft / 246 cfs @19:45–23:30; (e) trivial +0.01 ft (4.46→4.47) @00:30 and +0.02-ft midnight-hour wobbles (20:45), sub-resolution noise on a zero-QPE day — not a rainfall signal. Effectively pure recession. Still Optimal (>200).
• St. Joe (height/discharge): (a) 5.15 ft / 943 cfs @00:00; (b) max 5.15 / 943 @00:00; (c) last 4.83 / 764 @22:45; (d) low 764 cfs @22:00–22:45; (e) none (0.01-ft/±5-cfs jitter is rating-curve quantization). Pure recession, mid-Optimal.
• Harriet (height/discharge): (a) 5.12 ft / 1230 cfs @00:00; (b) max 5.12 / 1230 @00:00; (c) last 4.81 / 966 @22:45; (d) low 966 cfs @22:15–22:45; (e) none. Pure recession, mid-Optimal.
• Richland (height): (a) 1.12 ft @00:00; (b) max 1.12 @00:00; (c) last 1.03 @23:00; (d) low 1.03 @21:15–23:00; (e) none. NEW post-event low (1.03 ft).
• Bear (height/discharge): (a) 2.25 ft / 27.8 cfs @00:00; (b) max 2.25 / 27.8 @00:00; (c) last 2.19 / 23.5 @23:15; (d) low 2.19 ft / 23.5 cfs @20:00–23:15; (e) none. NEW post-event low (23.5 cfs / 2.19 ft).

(f) QPE-peak attribution: today basin-max 24-hr QPE = 0.000" (third consecutive dry day). No QPE peaks exist anywhere in the basin; therefore no lag or transfer-ratio computation is possible today and none is attempted. Every movement is recession from the Day-119 Event-22 pulse.

1. PRECIPITATION SUMMARY: Zero. Basin-max 24-hr QPE 0.000" (all 37 HUC12s, all zones), the third straight dry day (Days 120–122). The 7-day antecedent has collapsed as the Event-22 rain ages out of the window: Boxley zone now 1.63" (was 5.02" on Day 121), Ponca ~1.6", Pruitt ~1.4–2.0", St. Joe sub-group ~0.7–1.2", Richland 0.62–0.83" (driest), Bear 0.85–1.25". The basin is transitioning from very-wet toward moist/drying.

2. GAUGE RESPONSES: No rainfall responses — all seven gauges in pure recession (each daily max = 00:00 reading). This is the clean tail of Event 22. Day's recession slopes: Boxley 2.63→2.44 ft (~0.008 ft/hr seepage); Ponca 180→137 cfs (~1.9 cfs/hr); Pruitt 4.47→4.18 ft / 334→246 cfs (~3.7 cfs/hr @~290); St. Joe 943→764 cfs (~7.9 cfs/hr @~850); Harriet 1230→966 cfs (~11.6 cfs/hr @~1100); Richland 1.12→1.03 ft; Bear 27.8→23.5 cfs. Signal separators Richland and Bear both at new post-event lows and flat → confirms nothing forced anywhere.

Threshold crossings: Ponca dropped below 150 cfs into Too Low ~16:00 CDT (its Event-22 Optimal window fully closed — it had re-exited to Low-but-Floatable ~18:00 Day 121, now steps down to Too Low). Pruitt (246 cfs), St. Joe (764 cfs) and Harriet (966 cfs) all remain mid-Optimal. As in every prior event, the smallest drainage (Ponca) is first to fall out.

3. RAINFALL-RESPONSE PAIRS: None. Zero QPE basin-wide → no pairs to form, no lag or transfer ratio to compute or compare. (Per role discipline: I will not manufacture a pair or a lag from data that has no QPE peak.)

4. DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION: No new propagating pulse. The Event-22 cascade closed on Day 121 (Harriet peak 1610 cfs @00:30 Day 121). Today is uniform mainstem recession. Recession-rate ordering is consistent with the established dQ/dt-vs-Q curve: St. Joe ~7.9 cfs/hr @~850 and Harriet ~11.6 cfs/hr @~1100 — both slightly below the Day-121 fresh-limb values, matching continued baseflow-band decay. The persistent Harriet-over-St.Joe offset (~200 cfs at near-identical stage) holds, the expected limb-position effect from Harriet peaking ~8.5 hr later.

5. MULTI-DAY EVENTS: Today is Event-22 recession Day 2 (post-Harriet-peak) / Day 3 of zero-QPE. No new event. Boxley pool continues draining from its 3.93-ft Day-119 peak: 3.93→3.33→2.90→2.63→2.44 ft over four days (~0.5-ft/day slow-phase seepage) — consistent with the ~4-day drain expectation for a ~1.2-ft-class peak. St. Joe (764) and Harriet (966) are now approaching but still well above the Event-20 Day-112 slow-phase reference (~800/1110 cfs); another 2–3 dry days would test whether they set new post-event lows.

6. ANOMALIES OR SURPRISES: None. Textbook three-day dry recession. NO USGS rating-curve step at any gauge — now ~17 days post-Event-20 record peak with the historically-expected post-major-event field-revision artifact still absent; Bear/Richland cfs continue stepping down in smooth 0.7–0.8-cfs increments (Bear 27.8→27.0→26.3→25.6→24.9→24.2→23.5). Richland (1.03 ft) and Bear (23.5 cfs / 2.19 ft) again set new post-event lows below pre-event baselines — the recurring Pruitt/Richland/Bear slow-phase overshoot. Confidence in all prior findings unchanged.