Empirical Forecasts — Big Piney Creek — 2026-09-11

Hourly records: 24 — claims (≥8 %): 24, no-rise-indicated: 0, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 0
Settled (horizon passed): 24

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Big Piney Creek

04:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.21 ft). Rain 24 h: 34.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~32.8 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

03:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.21 ft). Rain 24 h: 37.3 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~32.8 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

02:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.2 ft). Rain 24 h: 45.2 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~32.8 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

01:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.18 ft). Rain 24 h: 49.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~32.8 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

00:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.16 ft). Rain 24 h: 49.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~32.8 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

23:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.13 ft). Rain 24 h: 49.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~32.8 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

22:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.1 ft). Rain 24 h: 49.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~25.9 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

21:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.06 ft). Rain 24 h: 49.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~25.9 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

20:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.03 ft). Rain 24 h: 49.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~25.9 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

19:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0 ft). Rain 24 h: 51.9 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~25.9 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

18:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.01 ft). Rain 24 h: 53.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~25.9 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

17:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.02 ft). Rain 24 h: 53.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~25.9 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

16:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0 ft). Rain 24 h: 53.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~25.9 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

15:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.01 ft). Rain 24 h: 52.8 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~25.9 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

14:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0 ft). Rain 24 h: 51.7 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~25.9 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

13:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.05 ft). Rain 24 h: 49.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~25.9 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

12:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.04 ft). Rain 24 h: 46.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~25.9 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

11:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.06 ft). Rain 24 h: 41.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~25.9 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

10:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.11 ft). Rain 24 h: 36.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~25.9 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

09:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.13 ft). Rain 24 h: 32.6 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: ~25.9 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

08:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.23 ft). Rain 24 h: 30.5 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: ~9.3 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

07:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.29 ft). Rain 24 h: 25.5 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: ~9.3 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

06:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.25 ft). Rain 24 h: 22.5 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: ~9.3 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

05:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.25 ft). Rain 24 h: 21.4 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: ~9.3 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise