Empirical Forecasts — Big Piney Creek — 2026-09-12

Hourly records: 24 — claims (≥8 %): 5, no-rise-indicated: 19, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 0
Settled (horizon passed): 24

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Big Piney Creek

04:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.15 ft). Rain 24 h: 3.3 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~3.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

03:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.16 ft). Rain 24 h: 3.3 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~3.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

02:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.16 ft). Rain 24 h: 3.3 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~3.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

01:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.17 ft). Rain 24 h: 3.3 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~3.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

00:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.17 ft). Rain 24 h: 3.3 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~3.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

23:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.17 ft). Rain 24 h: 3.3 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~3.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

22:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.17 ft). Rain 24 h: 3.3 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~3.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

21:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.18 ft). Rain 24 h: 3.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~3.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

20:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.17 ft). Rain 24 h: 2.2 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~2.1 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

19:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.18 ft). Rain 24 h: 2.2 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~2.1 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

18:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.19 ft). Rain 24 h: 2.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~2.1 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

17:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.19 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.2 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.1 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

16:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.2 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.1 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

15:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.21 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.9 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~2.1 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

14:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.22 ft). Rain 24 h: 2.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~2.1 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

13:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.22 ft). Rain 24 h: 4.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~3.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

12:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.22 ft). Rain 24 h: 7.7 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~4.6 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

11:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.22 ft). Rain 24 h: 12.2 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~7.1 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

10:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.22 ft). Rain 24 h: 17.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~7.1 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

09:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.22 ft). Rain 24 h: 21.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~12.2 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

08:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.21 ft). Rain 24 h: 23.2 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~12.2 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

07:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.21 ft). Rain 24 h: 28.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~12.2 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

06:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.21 ft). Rain 24 h: 31.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~32.8 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

05:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.21 ft). Rain 24 h: 32.2 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~32.8 % chance of rising to LOW within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise