Empirical Forecasts — Big Piney Creek — 2026-10-01

Hourly records: 24 — claims (≥8 %): 0, no-rise-indicated: 24, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 0
Settled (horizon passed): 0

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Big Piney Creek

04:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.2 ft). Rain 24 h: 9.5 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~4.6 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-03 10:18 UTC

03:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.21 ft). Rain 24 h: 9.5 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~4.6 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-03 09:18 UTC

02:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.21 ft). Rain 24 h: 9.4 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~4.6 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-03 08:18 UTC

01:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.21 ft). Rain 24 h: 8.6 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~4.6 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-03 07:18 UTC

00:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.21 ft). Rain 24 h: 7.1 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~4.6 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-03 06:18 UTC

23:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.21 ft). Rain 24 h: 6.5 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~4.6 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-03 05:18 UTC

22:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.21 ft). Rain 24 h: 6.1 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~4.6 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-03 04:18 UTC

21:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.21 ft). Rain 24 h: 5.2 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~3.2 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-03 03:18 UTC

20:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.28 ft). Rain 24 h: 4.2 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~3.2 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-03 02:18 UTC

19:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.25 ft). Rain 24 h: 3.7 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~3.2 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-03 01:18 UTC

18:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.2 ft). Rain 24 h: 1.6 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~1.4 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-03 00:18 UTC

17:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.2 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.3 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~1.4 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-02 23:18 UTC

16:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.2 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-02 22:18 UTC

15:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.19 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-02 21:18 UTC

14:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.19 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-02 20:18 UTC

13:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.19 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-02 19:18 UTC

12:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.19 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-02 18:18 UTC

11:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.2 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-02 17:18 UTC

10:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.19 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-02 16:18 UTC

09:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.2 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-02 15:18 UTC

08:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.2 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-02 14:18 UTC

07:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.2 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-02 13:18 UTC

06:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.2 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-02 12:18 UTC

05:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (-0.2 ft). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 30 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Pending until 2026-10-02 11:18 UTC