Classification: no_prediction Confidence: Model confidence remains medium for most bands. The repeated 'no_prediction' events in saturated conditions with sharp rises suggest a persistent blind spot in the predictor's ability to trigger on low-QPE/high-runoff efficiency events. Until the predictor generates output for these sharp, low-precipitation events, coefficients cannot be tuned.
The prediction engine failed to generate a numeric peak forecast for this event, which was characterized by a sharp, rapid rise in the gauge despite zero recorded precipitation at the local sensor.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | N/A | 4.63 ft | N/A |
| Total rise | — | 1.88 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Headline: WATCH — Recent rainfall is within the typical range of historical rises to MEDIUM Settled outcome: verified (reached medium) LLM said headline was correct: True Notes: The empirical model predicted a MEDIUM tier rise (threshold 3.4 ft). The actual peak reached 4.63 ft, which is within the MEDIUM tier (3.4-5.5 ft). The headline 'WATCH' was verified.
Today's event presented a hydrograph with a sharp rise and short duration (2.8 hours), indicative of near-gauge or immediate response mechanisms. However, the local gauge precipitation sensor recorded 0" of rain, and the predictor generated no output (Predicted peak: None). This is consistent with the recent history of 'no_prediction' events (June 8-10) where sharp rises occurred without significant QPE or gauge precipitation inputs.
The lack of a prediction prevents a standard grading of the physics model's accuracy for this specific rainfall-runoff conversion. The sharp hydrograph shape suggests the water came from very close to the gauge (Band 1 zone) or was a release from storage not captured by the current QPE bands. Since the predictor did not issue a value, no coefficient adjustments can be reliably derived from this event alone without risking overfitting to sensor noise or unmeasured local convective cells.
No changes made.
Model confidence remains medium for most bands. The repeated 'no_prediction' events in saturated conditions with sharp rises suggest a persistent blind spot in the predictor's ability to trigger on low-QPE/high-runoff efficiency events. Until the predictor generates output for these sharp, low-precipitation events, coefficients cannot be tuned.