Classification: no_prediction Confidence: Model confidence remains stable but highlights a recurring issue with predicting rises in the absence of measurable QPE/Gauge data during wet/antecedent conditions. The lack of output suggests the predictor's threshold for generating a forecast was not met despite significant gauge movement.
The prediction engine failed to generate output despite a sharp 0.64 ft gauge rise with zero QPE and zero gauge precipitation, likely representing residual runoff or unmeasured local rainfall in wet conditions.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | N/A | 3.99 ft | N/A |
| Total rise | — | 0.64 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
The predictor did not generate a forecast today, resulting in a 'no_prediction' classification. However, the gauge recorded a daily maximum of 3.99 ft, representing a 0.64 ft rise that began at the start of the day. The hydrograph shape was sharp, suggesting a near-gauge source, but all QPE bands show 0.00 inches and the gauge precipitation sensor recorded 0 inches for the 24-hour period.
This event mirrors the pattern seen in the previous three days (June 9, 10, and 12), where sharp rises occurred with zero measurable inputs. Given the antecedent moisture tier is WET (2.057" 7-day average), this rise is likely due to residual drainage from previous saturated events, localized rainfall missed by both the gauge and QPE grids, or groundwater contributions. The lack of prediction is a data-availability or trigger issue rather than a coefficient error.
Since no prediction was generated, no coefficient adjustments are recommended. The model's inability to predict these zero-input rises suggests a gap in handling baseflow/residual runoff in wet conditions, but adjusting response coefficients based on zero-input events is invalid. The system should be monitored to see if these sharp, zero-input spikes persist as the watershed drains.
No changes made.
Model confidence remains stable but highlights a recurring issue with predicting rises in the absence of measurable QPE/Gauge data during wet/antecedent conditions. The lack of output suggests the predictor's threshold for generating a forecast was not met despite significant gauge movement.