Classification: no_prediction Confidence: Model confidence remains low due to repeated failures to generate predictions for rising events in June. The system needs to address why it is failing to trigger on days with observable hydrograph changes, particularly when gauge precipitation is zero but QPE or antecedent moisture suggests potential runoff.
The prediction engine generated no output for a sharp 0.79 ft gauge rise driven by unmeered rainfall or antecedent effects, despite zero recorded precipitation at the gauge and minimal QPE.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | N/A | 4.47 ft | N/A |
| Total rise | — | 0.79 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Today's event continues a troubling pattern observed in the recent history (June 9-14) where the physics-based predictor fails to generate output entirely, classifying these as 'no_prediction' events. A sharp rise of 0.79 ft was recorded at the gauge, peaking at 4.47 ft early in the day. The hydrograph shape was sharp, suggesting near-gauge rainfall or immediate response from saturated soils, yet the gauge precipitation sensor recorded 0 inches, and QPE data showed negligible rainfall (only 0.02 inches total across Band 1).
The antecedent moisture tier is 'WET' (2.392 inches 7-day average), which aligns with the observed sensitivity of the watershed. However, the core issue is not the magnitude of the coefficient adjustment but the failure of the prediction engine to trigger at all. Given the lack of measurable rainfall input to the model, the system likely did not meet the threshold to initiate a forecast. This represents a systematic data-availability or threshold-triggering issue rather than a calibration error in the response coefficients themselves. Without a generated prediction, no coefficient grading (correct/false positive/negative) can be applied.
No changes made.
Model confidence remains low due to repeated failures to generate predictions for rising events in June. The system needs to address why it is failing to trigger on days with observable hydrograph changes, particularly when gauge precipitation is zero but QPE or antecedent moisture suggests potential runoff.