Classification: no_prediction Confidence: Model confidence remains low due to persistent lack of predictions for days with observable gauge rises. The system continues to miss events where QPE is zero but gauge levels change, indicating a systemic gap in data input or model triggers for unmeasured precipitation.
The prediction engine failed to generate output for a day with a sharp, unexplained 0.42 ft rise at the gauge, despite zero QPE and zero recorded precipitation.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | N/A | 3.67 ft | N/A |
| Total rise | — | 0.42 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Today's event presents a continued pattern of 'phantom' rises where the gauge detects significant water level increases without corresponding QPE or gauge precipitation data. The actual peak was 3.67 ft, representing a 0.42 ft rise from baseline. The hydrograph shape was described as 'sharp,' which typically indicates near-gauge rainfall or immediate runoff, yet all bands show 0.00" rainfall.
Since no prediction was generated (Predicted peak: None), calibration adjustments to response coefficients cannot be calculated directly against a predicted value. This appears to be a data availability or sensor anomaly issue similar to the last five events, where the physics model did not engage due to lack of input rainfall data.
Consistent with the recent history, this event reinforces the hypothesis that there are unmeasured precipitation sources or localized runoff events occurring in the immediate vicinity of the gauge (Band 1 area) that are not captured by the current QPE grid or the USGS 07340300 gauge precipitation sensor. No coefficient changes are recommended because there is no predicted output to correct.
No changes made.
Model confidence remains low due to persistent lack of predictions for days with observable gauge rises. The system continues to miss events where QPE is zero but gauge levels change, indicating a systemic gap in data input or model triggers for unmeasured precipitation.