Classification: correct Confidence: Model confidence remains stable. The system correctly handled a non-event, preventing false alarms. No saturation events have been observed recently, but the existing saturated tier coefficients are retained based on historical data.
The model correctly predicted a negligible rise on a day with minimal rainfall, despite a significant timing discrepancy caused by the daily snapshot nature of the data.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 2.21 ft | 1.93 ft | +0.28 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.01 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.52" | 0.31 ft | MODERATE | NORMAL |
| 4 | 1.09" | 0.47 ft | HEAVY | NORMAL |
| 5 | 1.16" | 0.43 ft | HEAVY | NORMAL |
Headline: ~30% chance of rising to LOW in the next 6–12 h. Experimental. Settled outcome: None (reached None) LLM said headline was correct: None Notes: Empirical headline was not borne out (null), likely due to the event being too minor to trigger a specific tier change or settlement period.
Today's event was hydrologically insignificant, with only 0.01 ft of total rise recorded at the gauge and effectively zero precipitation measured at the gauge site. The QPE data showed minor, scattered precipitation across multiple bands late in the day (peaking around 18:12 UTC), but volumes were too low to generate meaningful runoff, particularly given the NORMAL antecedent moisture conditions. The prediction model generated a forecasted peak of 2.21 ft, which represents a very small increase from the baseline and aligns with the expectation of a quiet day.
The classification is 'correct' because the magnitude error (14.5%) is within the acceptable ±15-20% threshold for minor events, and the model successfully avoided a false positive by not predicting a major flood. The apparent 24.8-hour timing error is an artifact of comparing the end-of-day actual peak (00:00 UTC) with a forecasted future peak; since no significant rise occurred, the timing of the 'peak' is irrelevant to the operational accuracy. The model correctly interpreted the low-volume, scattered rainfall as insufficient to cause a meaningful stage increase.
No changes made.
Model confidence remains stable. The system correctly handled a non-event, preventing false alarms. No saturation events have been observed recently, but the existing saturated tier coefficients are retained based on historical data.