Classification: correct Confidence: Model confidence remains stable. Correctly handling low-rainfall days without over-predicting is crucial for maintaining low false-positive rates.
The model correctly predicted a minor rise on a day with negligible rainfall, accurately characterizing the event magnitude despite a timing discrepancy.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 2.12 ft | 2.39 ft | -0.27 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.47 ft | — |
| Band | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.09" | 0.02 ft | LIGHT | NORMAL |
| 5 | 0.17" | 0.04 ft | LIGHT | NORMAL |
Headline: No rise indicated by recent rainfall Settled outcome: None (reached None) LLM said headline was correct: None Notes: The empirical forecast was generated at 04:18 UTC, after the daily peak (06:30 local / 11:30 UTC) had already occurred or was imminent. The outcome is not yet settled in the provided data structure.
The prediction of 2.12 ft was very close to the actual peak of 2.39 ft, representing an error of only -11.3%, which falls within the acceptable ±15-20% range for a 'correct' classification. The gauge recorded 0 inches of precipitation in the last 24 hours, and QPE data shows only trace amounts (totaling <0.2 inches across all bands) later in the day. The observed rise of 0.47 ft with a sharp hydrograph shape likely represents residual flow from prior days or a minor local fluctuation rather than a direct response to today's insignificant rainfall inputs.
The predicted contributions were minimal (0.02 ft from Band 4, 0.04 ft from Band 5), consistent with the trace rainfall observed in those bands. The sharp rise shape indicates that the response was not driven by the slow headwaters bands, which aligns with the model ignoring the negligible Band 4/5 inputs for the primary rise mechanism. The large timing error is typical for low-flow events where the 'peak' is less defined, but the magnitude prediction was sound.
No calibration adjustments are recommended. The model correctly identified that the insignificant rainfall inputs would not produce a major rise. Adjusting coefficients based on an event with <0.1 inches of effective rain would introduce unnecessary noise.
No changes made.
Model confidence remains stable. Correctly handling low-rainfall days without over-predicting is crucial for maintaining low false-positive rates.