Cossatot River — Predictions: 2026-09-10
Rise predictions issued: 4
No-rise claims (quiet / too light) issued: 20
Settled (18-h window passed): 24
Issued 2026-09-11 04:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.96 ft |
2.06 ft |
+0.10 ft |
| Peak flow |
8 cfs |
12 cfs |
x0.69 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 11:20 |
2026-09-11 17:15 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 1.84 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.44" 7-day, x0.01)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 8 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2014-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 0.2 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.53" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
0.67" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 3 |
0.83" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 4 |
1.19" |
0.07 ft |
13:20 |
HEAVY |
| 5 |
1.11" |
0.04 ft |
10:20 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-09-11 03:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.94 ft |
2.02 ft |
+0.08 ft |
| Peak flow |
7 cfs |
10 cfs |
x0.73 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 10:20 |
2026-09-11 16:00 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 1.83 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.44" 7-day, x0.01)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 8 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2014-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 0.2 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.53" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
0.67" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 3 |
0.83" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 4 |
1.19" |
0.06 ft |
13:20 |
HEAVY |
| 5 |
1.11" |
0.04 ft |
10:20 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-09-11 02:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.94 ft |
2.01 ft |
+0.07 ft |
| Peak flow |
7 cfs |
9 cfs |
x0.77 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 10:20 |
2026-09-11 11:15 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 1.83 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.44" 7-day, x0.01)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 8 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2014-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 0.2 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.53" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
0.67" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 3 |
0.83" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 4 |
1.19" |
0.06 ft |
13:20 |
HEAVY |
| 5 |
1.11" |
0.04 ft |
10:20 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-09-11 01:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.94 ft |
2.01 ft |
+0.07 ft |
| Peak flow |
7 cfs |
9 cfs |
x0.77 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 11:20 |
2026-09-11 11:15 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 1.83 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.42" 7-day, x0.01)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 8 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2014-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 0.2 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.53" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
0.67" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 3 |
0.82" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 4 |
1.16" |
0.06 ft |
13:20 |
HEAVY |
| 5 |
1.08" |
0.04 ft |
09:20 |
HEAVY |
No-rise claims
Every hourly run that predicted no rise (quiet, rain too light, or a crest inside the noise floor). Settled: 20; verified 15; the gauge rose anyway on 5.
| Issued |
Level |
Engine |
Why |
Peak in 18 h |
Rose? |
Verdict |
| 00:20 |
1.82 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
2.01 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 23:20 |
1.81 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
2.01 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 22:20 |
1.81 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
2.01 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 21:20 |
1.81 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
2.00 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 20:20 |
1.82 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.97 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 19:20 |
1.82 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.91 ft |
no |
verified |
| 18:20 |
1.82 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.89 ft |
no |
verified |
| 17:20 |
1.82 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.87 ft |
no |
verified |
| 16:20 |
1.82 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.86 ft |
no |
verified |
| 15:20 |
1.83 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.86 ft |
no |
verified |
| 14:20 |
1.83 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.85 ft |
no |
verified |
| 13:20 |
1.83 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.85 ft |
no |
verified |
| 12:20 |
1.83 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.84 ft |
no |
verified |
| 11:20 |
1.83 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.84 ft |
no |
verified |
| 10:20 |
1.83 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.84 ft |
no |
verified |
| 09:20 |
1.83 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.83 ft |
no |
verified |
| 08:20 |
1.83 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.83 ft |
no |
verified |
| 07:20 |
1.83 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.83 ft |
no |
verified |
| 06:20 |
1.83 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.83 ft |
no |
verified |
| 05:20 |
1.83 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.83 ft |
no |
verified |