Cossatot River — Predictions: 2026-09-11
Rise predictions issued: 14
No-rise claims (quiet / too light) issued: 10
Settled (18-h window passed): 24
Issued 2026-09-11 22:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
2.18 ft |
2.10 ft |
-0.08 ft |
| Peak flow |
19 cfs |
14 cfs |
x1.36 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-12 02:20 |
2026-09-11 19:00 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 2.05 ft) |
— |
no |
false alarm |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.95" 7-day, x0.05)
Confidence: low — only the eager dial predicts a rise; about 4 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep (about 3 in 10 all year), 2014-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 0.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.18" |
0.00 ft |
— |
MODERATE |
| 2 |
0.16" |
0.00 ft |
— |
LIGHT |
| 3 |
0.26" |
0.00 ft |
— |
LIGHT |
| 4 |
0.49" |
0.13 ft |
02:20 |
MODERATE |
| 5 |
0.53" |
0.01 ft |
23:20 |
MODERATE |
Issued 2026-09-11 21:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
2.20 ft |
2.10 ft |
-0.10 ft |
| Peak flow |
20 cfs |
14 cfs |
x1.45 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-12 02:20 |
2026-09-11 19:00 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 2.02 ft) |
— |
no |
false alarm |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.95" 7-day, x0.05)
Confidence: medium — medium and eager dials predict a rise; the cautious dial does not; about 5 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2014-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 0.2 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.20" |
0.00 ft |
— |
MODERATE |
| 2 |
0.19" |
0.01 ft |
22:20 |
LIGHT |
| 3 |
0.30" |
0.00 ft |
— |
LIGHT |
| 4 |
0.53" |
0.14 ft |
02:20 |
MODERATE |
| 5 |
0.57" |
0.05 ft |
23:20 |
MODERATE |
Issued 2026-09-11 20:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
2.27 ft |
2.10 ft |
-0.17 ft |
| Peak flow |
26 cfs |
14 cfs |
x1.87 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 22:20 |
2026-09-11 19:00 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 2.00 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.95" 7-day, x0.05)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 8 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2014-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 0.2 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.24" |
0.00 ft |
— |
MODERATE |
| 2 |
0.24" |
0.04 ft |
22:20 |
LIGHT |
| 3 |
0.35" |
0.00 ft |
— |
LIGHT |
| 4 |
0.57" |
0.14 ft |
02:20 |
MODERATE |
| 5 |
0.61" |
0.08 ft |
23:20 |
MODERATE |
Issued 2026-09-11 19:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
2.37 ft |
2.10 ft |
-0.27 ft |
| Peak flow |
35 cfs |
14 cfs |
x2.54 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 22:20 |
2026-09-11 19:00 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 2.01 ft) |
— |
no |
false alarm |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.95" 7-day, x0.05)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 8 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2014-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 0.2 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.25" |
0.00 ft |
— |
MODERATE |
| 2 |
0.41" |
0.08 ft |
22:20 |
MODERATE |
| 3 |
0.55" |
0.00 ft |
— |
MODERATE |
| 4 |
0.60" |
0.16 ft |
02:20 |
MODERATE |
| 5 |
0.70" |
0.12 ft |
23:20 |
MODERATE |
Issued 2026-09-11 18:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
2.47 ft |
2.10 ft |
-0.37 ft |
| Peak flow |
43 cfs |
14 cfs |
x3.17 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 22:20 |
2026-09-11 19:00 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 2.01 ft) |
— |
no |
false alarm |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.95" 7-day, x0.05)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 8 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2014-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 0.2 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.25" |
0.00 ft |
— |
MODERATE |
| 2 |
0.41" |
0.12 ft |
22:20 |
MODERATE |
| 3 |
0.55" |
0.00 ft |
— |
MODERATE |
| 4 |
0.60" |
0.17 ft |
02:20 |
MODERATE |
| 5 |
0.70" |
0.17 ft |
23:20 |
MODERATE |
Issued 2026-09-11 17:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
2.56 ft |
2.10 ft |
-0.46 ft |
| Peak flow |
53 cfs |
14 cfs |
x3.86 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 22:20 |
2026-09-11 19:00 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 2.01 ft) |
— |
no |
false alarm |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.95" 7-day, x0.05)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 8 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2014-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 0.2 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.25" |
0.00 ft |
— |
MODERATE |
| 2 |
0.41" |
0.14 ft |
22:20 |
MODERATE |
| 3 |
0.55" |
0.08 ft |
18:20 |
MODERATE |
| 4 |
0.60" |
0.15 ft |
02:20 |
MODERATE |
| 5 |
0.70" |
0.18 ft |
23:20 |
MODERATE |
Issued 2026-09-11 16:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
2.61 ft |
2.10 ft |
-0.51 ft |
| Peak flow |
60 cfs |
14 cfs |
x4.34 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 22:20 |
2026-09-11 19:00 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 2.00 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.95" 7-day, x0.05)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 8 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2014-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 0.2 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.25" |
0.00 ft |
— |
MODERATE |
| 2 |
0.41" |
0.13 ft |
22:20 |
MODERATE |
| 3 |
0.55" |
0.19 ft |
18:20 |
MODERATE |
| 4 |
0.60" |
0.12 ft |
02:20 |
MODERATE |
| 5 |
0.70" |
0.17 ft |
23:20 |
MODERATE |
Issued 2026-09-11 15:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
2.69 ft |
2.10 ft |
-0.59 ft |
| Peak flow |
69 cfs |
14 cfs |
x5.01 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 19:20 |
2026-09-11 19:00 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 1.99 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.93" 7-day, x0.05)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 8 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2014-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 0.2 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.24" |
0.00 ft |
— |
MODERATE |
| 2 |
0.41" |
0.14 ft |
21:20 |
MODERATE |
| 3 |
0.54" |
0.27 ft |
18:20 |
MODERATE |
| 4 |
0.57" |
0.12 ft |
02:20 |
MODERATE |
| 5 |
0.64" |
0.17 ft |
22:20 |
MODERATE |
Issued 2026-09-11 14:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
2.37 ft |
2.10 ft |
-0.27 ft |
| Peak flow |
34 cfs |
14 cfs |
x2.51 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 17:20 |
2026-09-11 19:00 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 1.94 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.81" 7-day, x0.04)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 8 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2014-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 0.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.08" |
0.00 ft |
— |
LIGHT |
| 2 |
0.28" |
0.01 ft |
19:20 |
MODERATE |
| 3 |
0.45" |
0.18 ft |
17:20 |
MODERATE |
| 4 |
0.41" |
0.09 ft |
01:20 |
MODERATE |
| 5 |
0.48" |
0.13 ft |
22:20 |
MODERATE |
Issued 2026-09-11 13:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
2.26 ft |
2.10 ft |
-0.16 ft |
| Peak flow |
25 cfs |
14 cfs |
x1.80 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 17:20 |
2026-09-11 19:00 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 1.90 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.75" 7-day, x0.03)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 8 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2014-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 0.2 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.08" |
0.00 ft |
— |
LIGHT |
| 2 |
0.28" |
0.02 ft |
19:20 |
MODERATE |
| 3 |
0.42" |
0.18 ft |
17:20 |
MODERATE |
| 4 |
0.34" |
0.07 ft |
01:20 |
MODERATE |
| 5 |
0.38" |
0.10 ft |
21:20 |
MODERATE |
Issued 2026-09-11 11:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
2.16 ft |
2.10 ft |
-0.06 ft |
| Peak flow |
18 cfs |
14 cfs |
x1.29 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 13:20 |
2026-09-11 19:00 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 1.87 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.65" 7-day, x0.01)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 8 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2014-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 0.2 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.59" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
0.90" |
0.01 ft |
17:20 |
HEAVY |
| 3 |
0.92" |
0.21 ft |
13:20 |
HEAVY |
| 4 |
1.02" |
0.02 ft |
13:20 |
HEAVY |
| 5 |
1.02" |
0.06 ft |
17:20 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-09-11 10:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
2.23 ft |
2.10 ft |
-0.13 ft |
| Peak flow |
23 cfs |
14 cfs |
x1.65 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 13:20 |
2026-09-11 19:00 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 1.86 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.64" 7-day, x0.01)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 8 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2014-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 0.2 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.59" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
0.91" |
0.01 ft |
16:20 |
HEAVY |
| 3 |
1.05" |
0.29 ft |
13:20 |
HEAVY |
| 4 |
1.25" |
0.03 ft |
13:20 |
HEAVY |
| 5 |
1.24" |
0.05 ft |
17:20 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-09-11 09:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
2.21 ft |
2.10 ft |
-0.11 ft |
| Peak flow |
21 cfs |
14 cfs |
x1.53 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 12:20 |
2026-09-11 19:00 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 1.86 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.61" 7-day, x0.01)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 8 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2014-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 0.2 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.58" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
0.89" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 3 |
1.03" |
0.28 ft |
12:20 |
HEAVY |
| 4 |
1.26" |
0.04 ft |
13:20 |
HEAVY |
| 5 |
1.23" |
0.04 ft |
16:20 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-09-11 08:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
2.12 ft |
2.10 ft |
-0.02 ft |
| Peak flow |
15 cfs |
14 cfs |
x1.10 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 12:20 |
2026-09-11 19:00 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 1.85 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.56" 7-day, x0.01)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 8 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2014-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 0.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.54" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
0.84" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 3 |
1.03" |
0.20 ft |
12:20 |
HEAVY |
| 4 |
1.21" |
0.05 ft |
13:20 |
HEAVY |
| 5 |
1.19" |
0.02 ft |
11:20 |
HEAVY |
No-rise claims
Every hourly run that predicted no rise (quiet, rain too light, or a crest inside the noise floor). Settled: 10; verified 6; the gauge rose anyway on 4.
| Issued |
Level |
Engine |
Why |
Peak in 18 h |
Rose? |
Verdict |
| 04:20 |
2.06 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
2.05 ft |
no |
verified |
| 03:20 |
2.08 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
2.07 ft |
no |
verified |
| 02:20 |
2.09 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
2.08 ft |
no |
verified |
| 01:20 |
2.10 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
2.09 ft |
no |
verified |
| 00:20 |
2.09 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
2.10 ft |
no |
verified |
| 23:20 |
2.07 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
2.10 ft |
no |
verified |
| 12:20 |
1.88 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
2.10 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 07:20 |
1.85 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
2.10 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 06:20 |
1.84 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
2.10 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 05:20 |
1.84 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
2.08 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |