Classification: correct Confidence: Model continues to perform well on quiet days, maintaining high confidence in its ability to distinguish between noise and true hydrological events.
The physics model accurately predicted a negligible flow response (0.6 CFS) to light rainfall in very dry conditions, closely matching the observed 0.7 CFS peak.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak CFS | 1 CFS | 1 CFS | -0 CFS |
| Total rise | — | 0.1 CFS | — |
Headline: No rise indicated by recent rainfall LLM said headline was correct: True Notes: The 'No rise' call is justified as the gauge remained below operational thresholds and the total rise was negligible (<10% of baseflow).
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ? | 0.54" | 0 CFS | MODERATE |
The physics prediction was highly accurate for this quiet event. With 0.54 inches of rain in 'VERY DRY' antecedent conditions, the model correctly identified that runoff would be minimal. The predicted peak of 0.6 CFS compared to the actual 0.7 CFS results in a -14.3% error, which falls comfortably within the ±15-20% tolerance band for a 'correct' classification. The timing error of 2.1 hours is acceptable given the small magnitude of the rise and the lag inherent in the basin response.
The empirical forecast headline stated 'No rise indicated by recent rainfall' with a 0% probability of rise. This call is also considered correct because the actual rise (0.1 CFS from a base of 0.6 CFS to a peak of 0.7 CFS) is negligible and well below the operational 'low' tier threshold (500 CFS). The gauge remained effectively at baseline levels throughout the period, validating the model's conservative assessment that the rainfall was insufficient to generate a meaningful hydrological response.
Predictions issued today (archive): 10 active issuance(s) from 2026-09-10T19:21:01.766284+00:00 to 2026-09-11T04:21:01.643786+00:00; issued peaks ranged 0.5 to 0.6 CFS. The prediction graded below is the HIGHEST issued peak of the day (issued 2026-09-11T04:21:01.643786+00:00), not the last card of the day.
Grade-only mode: no adjustments suggested; calibration is fit offline.