Classification: correct Confidence: High confidence in magnitude prediction for low-flow/dry conditions. Model consistently identifies negligible rises when antecedent moisture is low. Timing remains a challenge for short lag basins but is less critical for low-magnitude events.
The physics model correctly predicted a negligible peak flow rise (2.9 CFS) to moderate rainfall in very dry antecedent conditions, closely matching the observed 2.14 CFS peak despite a significant timing error.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak CFS | 3 CFS | 2 CFS | +1 CFS |
| Total rise | — | 1.1 CFS | — |
Headline: No rise indicated by recent rainfall LLM said headline was correct: True Notes: Headline 'No rise indicated' was technically correct relative to tier thresholds (gauge stayed below 500 CFS), but failed to detect the 1.1 CFS rise from baseline.
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ? | 1.34" | 2 CFS | MODERATE |
The physics prediction of 2.9 CFS compares favorably to the actual peak of 2.14 CFS, resulting in a 37.4% error but staying within the 'correct' classification range for such low-magnitude events (< 5 CFS). The model correctly captured the minimal response magnitude due to the VERY DRY antecedent moisture tier (multiplier 0.001) effectively suppressing runoff from the 1.293" of rainfall. Although the timing error was substantial (10.6 hours), the directional accuracy and magnitude estimation were appropriate for the basin's small size and dry state.
The empirical forecast headline 'No rise indicated by recent rainfall' was technically correct as the gauge never crossed the 'low' threshold of 500 CFS, but it failed to capture the observable rise from the baseline of 1.04 CFS to the peak of 2.14 CFS. This highlights a limitation of the empirical model in detecting small, meaningful physical responses in small basins when using absolute tier thresholds, whereas the physics model successfully isolated the incremental flow contribution.
Predictions issued today (archive): 21 active issuance(s) from 2026-09-11T05:21:01.880538+00:00 to 2026-09-12T01:21:02.012894+00:00; issued peaks ranged 0.6 to 2.9 CFS. The prediction graded below is the HIGHEST issued peak of the day (issued 2026-09-11T15:21:02.284065+00:00), not the last card of the day.
Grade-only mode: no adjustments suggested; calibration is fit offline.