Classification: correct Confidence: The model maintains 'high' confidence. The consistent accuracy in the last 5 events (100% correct classification) supports the current stability of the calibration. The low flow conditions are well-captured by the current response coefficients and moisture multipliers.
The physics model accurately predicted a negligible flow response (3.9 CFS) to light rainfall in very dry conditions, closely matching the observed 4.16 CFS peak.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak CFS | 4 CFS | 4 CFS | -0 CFS |
| Total rise | — | 0.4 CFS | — |
Headline: No rise indicated by recent rainfall LLM said headline was correct: True Notes: The 'No rise' label was correct as the gauge remained well below the 500 CFS low threshold.
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ? | 0.32" | 0 CFS | MODERATE |
The physics model demonstrated high accuracy for this event, with a peak error of only -7.2% (predicted 3.9 CFS vs. actual 4.16 CFS). Despite a 2.4-hour timing offset, the magnitude of the predicted rise was consistent with the small observed response (0.4 CFS rise) in the fast-responding Boxley basin. The model correctly interpreted the 'VERY DRY' antecedent moisture condition (0.0 multiplier) and the moderate intensity of the 0.652" rainfall to produce a conservative, yet accurate, low-tier prediction. The consistent performance across the last five events, all classified as 'correct', indicates the current calibration coefficients are well-tuned for these low-flow conditions.
The empirical forecast headline was also correct, labeling the event as 'No rise indicated by recent rainfall' with a 0% probability of rising to the 'low' tier (500 CFS). This is justified as the actual peak of 4.16 CFS remained far below the 500 CFS threshold. The empirical model successfully identified that while a small rise occurred, it did not constitute a meaningful operational event. Both the physics and empirical models align in their assessment of the event's severity, confirming that the current thresholds and rainfall-runoff logic are appropriately calibrated for this watershed's small size and steep topography.
Predictions issued today (archive): 12 active issuance(s) from 2026-10-01T17:21:01.930785+00:00 to 2026-10-02T04:21:01.736004+00:00; issued peaks ranged 3.7 to 3.9 CFS. The prediction graded below is the HIGHEST issued peak of the day (issued 2026-10-01T18:21:02.320838+00:00), not the last card of the day.
Grade-only mode: no adjustments suggested; calibration is fit offline.