Classification: correct Confidence: Model confidence remains high with a streak of correct classifications for small, dry-antecedent events.
The physics model correctly predicted a negligible peak flow rise (3.7 CFS) to light rainfall in very dry conditions, closely matching the observed 3.96 CFS peak.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak CFS | 4 CFS | 4 CFS | -0 CFS |
| Total rise | — | 0.6 CFS | — |
Headline: No rise indicated by recent rainfall LLM said headline was correct: True Notes: The headline correctly identified that the rain was insufficient to trigger an operational tier change (low tier), despite a small physical rise.
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ? | 0.33" | 0 CFS | LIGHT |
The physics prediction was highly accurate for this event, forecasting a peak of 3.7 CFS versus the actual 3.96 CFS, resulting in a -7.6% error well within the ±15-20% accuracy band. Although the timing was off by 2.4 hours (predicted 16:21 UTC vs. observed 14:00 UTC, assuming the observed timestamp 09:00 -05:00 converts to 14:00 UTC), the magnitude and classification of the event as a minor rise were correct.
The empirical forecast headline stated 'No rise indicated by recent rainfall' with a 2% probability of rise. While the gauge did not reach the operational 'low' tier (500 CFS), a measurable hydrological rise of 0.6 CFS occurred. Given the small magnitude of the response and the context of the previous 'very dry' tier events in the history, the empirical model's classification of 'no operational rise' is justified, although strictly speaking, a rise did occur. The physics model's slight overprediction of the peak is consistent with the recent trend of accurate predictions for small events in dry conditions.
Predictions issued today (archive): 18 active issuance(s) from 2026-09-27T11:21:02.534825+00:00 to 2026-09-28T04:21:02.240202+00:00; issued peaks ranged 3.2 to 3.7 CFS. The prediction graded below is the HIGHEST issued peak of the day (issued 2026-09-27T15:21:01.715429+00:00), not the last card of the day.
Grade-only mode: no adjustments suggested; calibration is fit offline.