Empirical Forecasts — Illinois River (Hwy 16) — 2026-07-29

Forecasts archived: 24
Settled (expiry passed): 24

Illinois River (Hwy 16)

05:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 12.7 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 12:00 UTC)

04:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 12.7 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 12:00 UTC)

03:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 12.5 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 12:00 UTC)

02:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 9.7 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 12:00 UTC)

01:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 4.8 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 12:00 UTC)

00:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 4.8 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 12:00 UTC)

23:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 4.8 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 12:00 UTC)

22:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 4.8 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 12:00 UTC)

21:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 3.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

20:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 1.3 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

19:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.2 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

18:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: MISSED_LOWER (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

17:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: low, crossed: did not reach target)

16:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 17:00 UTC)

15:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 17:00 UTC)

14:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 17:00 UTC)

13:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 17:00 UTC)

12:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 17:00 UTC)

11:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 17:00 UTC)

10:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 17:00 UTC)

09:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 17:00 UTC)

08:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 17:00 UTC)

07:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 17:00 UTC)

06:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 17:00 UTC)