Empirical Forecasts — Illinois River (Hwy 16) — 2026-07-30

Forecasts archived: 25
Settled (expiry passed): 25

Illinois River (Hwy 16)

05:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 5.5 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

04:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 5.5 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

03:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 5.6 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

02:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 8.4 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

01:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 13.2 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

00:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 13.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

23:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 11.5 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

22:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 9.0 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

21:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 9.8 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

20:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 11.5 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

19:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 12.6 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

18:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 12.8 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

17:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 12.8 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

16:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 12.8 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

15:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 12.8 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

14:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 12.7 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

13:23 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 12.7 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

13:18 UTC — current tier: medium. QPE 24h: 12.7 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to HIGH, band below_p25, confidence calibrated - Outcome: NO_CHANGE (actual max: medium, crossed: did not reach target)

12:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 12.7 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 12:30 UTC)

11:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 12.7 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 12:00 UTC)

10:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 12.7 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 12:00 UTC)

09:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 12.7 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 12:00 UTC)

08:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 12.7 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 12:00 UTC)

07:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 12.7 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 12:00 UTC)

06:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 24h: 12.7 mm (dry soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence calibrated - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 12:00 UTC)