Empirical Forecasts — Illinois River (Hwy 16) — 2026-09-10

Hourly records: 23 — claims (≥8 %): 0, no-rise-indicated: 2, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 21
Settled (horizon passed): 23

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Illinois River (Hwy 16)

04:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 5.6 mm (dry soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

03:18 UTC — gauge tier low (226 cfs). Rain 24 h: 4.2 mm (dry soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

02:18 UTC — gauge tier low (226 cfs). Rain 24 h: 3.8 mm (dry soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

01:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 3.6 mm (dry soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

00:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 3.6 mm (dry soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

23:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 3.5 mm (dry soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

22:18 UTC — gauge tier low (232 cfs). Rain 24 h: 2.8 mm (dry soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

21:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 2.2 mm (dry soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

20:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 1.7 mm (dry soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

19:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 1.7 mm (dry soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

18:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 1.4 mm (dry soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

17:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.3 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

16:18 UTC — gauge tier low (224 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of MEDIUM within 30 h ~5.6 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: rose to MEDIUM at 21:00 UTC (max medium) — missed rise (no rise was indicated)

15:18 UTC — gauge tier low (224 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of MEDIUM within 30 h ~5.6 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: rose to MEDIUM at 21:00 UTC (max medium) — missed rise (no rise was indicated) - re-graded 2026-09-12 06:05 UTC on refreshed gauge truth

13:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached low (not graded)

12:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached low (not graded)

11:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached low (not graded)

10:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached low (not graded)

09:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached low (not graded)

08:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached low (not graded)

07:18 UTC — gauge tier low (226 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached low (not graded)

06:18 UTC — gauge tier low (226 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached low (not graded)

05:18 UTC — gauge tier low (226 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.0 mm (drought soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached low (not graded)