Empirical Forecasts — Illinois River (Hwy 16) — 2026-09-11

Hourly records: 24 — claims (≥8 %): 0, no-rise-indicated: 6, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 18
Settled (horizon passed): 24

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Illinois River (Hwy 16)

04:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (268 cfs). Rain 24 h: 11.8 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

03:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (266 cfs). Rain 24 h: 13.3 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~5 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

02:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (263 cfs). Rain 24 h: 13.7 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~5 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

01:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (257 cfs). Rain 24 h: 13.8 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~5 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

00:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (251 cfs). Rain 24 h: 13.8 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~5 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

23:18 UTC — gauge tier low (245 cfs). Rain 24 h: 14.0 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

22:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (251 cfs). Rain 24 h: 14.7 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~5 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

21:18 UTC — gauge tier low (248 cfs). Rain 24 h: 15.2 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

20:18 UTC — gauge tier low (248 cfs). Rain 24 h: 15.7 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

19:18 UTC — gauge tier low (240 cfs). Rain 24 h: 15.8 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

18:18 UTC — gauge tier low (240 cfs). Rain 24 h: 16.1 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

17:18 UTC — gauge tier low (248 cfs). Rain 24 h: 17.1 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

16:18 UTC — gauge tier low (248 cfs). Rain 24 h: 17.4 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

15:18 UTC — gauge tier low (248 cfs). Rain 24 h: 17.4 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

14:18 UTC — gauge tier low (245 cfs). Rain 24 h: 17.4 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

13:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 17.4 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

12:18 UTC — gauge tier low (240 cfs). Rain 24 h: 17.4 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

11:18 UTC — gauge tier low (240 cfs). Rain 24 h: 17.2 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

10:18 UTC — gauge tier low (240 cfs). Rain 24 h: 17.1 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

09:18 UTC — gauge tier low (237 cfs). Rain 24 h: 17.0 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

08:18 UTC — gauge tier low (237 cfs). Rain 24 h: 16.1 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

07:18 UTC — gauge tier low (232 cfs). Rain 24 h: 13.3 mm (dry soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

06:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 9.9 mm (dry soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

05:18 UTC — gauge tier low (229 cfs). Rain 24 h: 7.3 mm (dry soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)