Empirical Forecasts — Illinois River (Hwy 16) — 2026-09-27

Hourly records: 24 — claims (≥8 %): 8, no-rise-indicated: 0, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 16
Settled (horizon passed): 24

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Illinois River (Hwy 16)

04:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (257 cfs). Rain 24 h: 22.6 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: ~10 % chance of rising to HIGH within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max medium — did not rise

03:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (257 cfs). Rain 24 h: 22.6 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: ~10 % chance of rising to HIGH within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max medium — did not rise

02:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (254 cfs). Rain 24 h: 22.6 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: ~10 % chance of rising to HIGH within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max medium — did not rise

01:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (254 cfs). Rain 24 h: 22.6 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: ~10 % chance of rising to HIGH within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max medium — did not rise

00:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (254 cfs). Rain 24 h: 24.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~10 % chance of rising to HIGH within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max medium — did not rise

23:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (254 cfs). Rain 24 h: 26.7 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~10 % chance of rising to HIGH within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max medium — did not rise

22:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (251 cfs). Rain 24 h: 27.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~10 % chance of rising to HIGH within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max medium — did not rise

21:18 UTC — gauge tier low (248 cfs). Rain 24 h: 27.0 mm (moist soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

20:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (251 cfs). Rain 24 h: 27.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~10 % chance of rising to HIGH within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max medium — did not rise

19:18 UTC — gauge tier low (248 cfs). Rain 24 h: 26.9 mm (moist soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

18:18 UTC — gauge tier low (240 cfs). Rain 24 h: 26.4 mm (moist soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

17:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 24.0 mm (moist soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

16:18 UTC — gauge tier low (240 cfs). Rain 24 h: 21.4 mm (moist soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

15:18 UTC — gauge tier low (240 cfs). Rain 24 h: 19.0 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

14:18 UTC — gauge tier low (240 cfs). Rain 24 h: 17.9 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

13:18 UTC — gauge tier low (240 cfs). Rain 24 h: 17.4 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

12:18 UTC — gauge tier low (240 cfs). Rain 24 h: 17.0 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

11:18 UTC — gauge tier low (237 cfs). Rain 24 h: 15.6 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

10:18 UTC — gauge tier low (237 cfs). Rain 24 h: 11.7 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

09:18 UTC — gauge tier low (232 cfs). Rain 24 h: 8.3 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

08:18 UTC — gauge tier low (232 cfs). Rain 24 h: 5.6 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

07:18 UTC — gauge tier low (232 cfs). Rain 24 h: 5.3 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

06:18 UTC — gauge tier low (232 cfs). Rain 24 h: 5.3 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)

05:18 UTC — gauge tier low (232 cfs). Rain 24 h: 5.3 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Outcome: reached medium (not graded)